Tehran out of road?

Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, the Netherlands, and Mexico.

Tehran, From the Qazvin Road, Jules Laurens, 1848, watercolour over pencil on paper, Victoria & Albert Museum, London.

The five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. A red light is not necessarily a red line.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Demands are better than escalation.

• BRITAIN. Big changes for defence may not go far enough.

• THE NETHERLANDS. Wilders threatens to quit while he’s still ahead.

• MEXICO. A low turnout for an overstated election.

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IRAN. Full of potential

A red light is not necessarily a red line.

Donald Trump posted "we will not allow any enrichment of uranium" with Iran "under our potential agreement" after Axios reported a US offer to allow 3% enrichment Monday. Tehran saw Washington’s proposal as a “non-starter”, Reuters said.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump's Truth Social post would appear to have killed the deal, but a new one can always be put in its place. Just as many insiders expect an eventual agreement to approximate the Obama-era JCPOA, Trump can (and does) replace his scrapped offers with similar versions under new headings. Iran will need to enrich between 3-5% to domestically fuel civilian nuclear power (the JCPOA gave it a 3.67% limit). It is unlikely to settle for much less.

FOR BUSINESS. Small modular reactors need enrichment levels of 5-20%, but the conventional plants Iran wishes to fuel don't need uranium at these grades, let alone the 60% weapons-grade levels a recent UN watchdog report claimed it had stockpiled (a nuclear bomb small enough to fit on a missile would need more). Both Washington and Tehran have room to move in negotiations. Oil prices are higher on expectations of a failure, but there’s still a road to travel.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Jaw zone

Demands are better than escalation.

A second round of peace talks in Istanbul lasted only an hour Monday, after Russia demanded Ukraine's neutrality and previous territorial claims. Another prisoner swap was proposed. Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan said the meeting was “great”.

INTELLIGENCE. The talks didn't achieve much, but Russia could have easily pulled out following Ukraine's audacious