Temptation island
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Albania, Colombia, and South Sudan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Beneath Trump’s bluster lies a 40-year desire.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow buys time with Washington’s Patriot offer.
ALBANIA. Kanye West and a NATO summit won’t save Edi Rama.
COLOMBIA. Espriella takes a gamble by suspending the transition.
SOUTH SUDAN. The world’s newest country faces old risks.
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IRAN. Desert island risks
Beneath Trump's bluster lies a 40-year desire.
Hormuz transits halted and Brent crude briefly hit $80 after Donald Trump said the ceasefire was "over", the Iranians were “scum”, and the US "may take over Kharg Island". CENTCOM said it hit 90 targets, after Iran's 85 the night before.
INTELLIGENCE. Strikes are rising incrementally, but rhetoric is on a tear. It may just reflect Trump’s brinksmanship, but MAGA ultras, re-emerging post-Versailles, are pressing him to go further. Most notably, ex-adviser Larry Kudlow has urged him to take Kharg, something the president has mused on since at least 1988. Yet even with more US assets in the region, such an effort would make Iwo Jima look easy. As before the truce, Trump has no good options.
FOR BUSINESS. Washington is signalling a multi-week campaign. Trump could always TACO – and many expect he will, at least before next Monday’s open – but keeping the Strait closed will put further pressure on oil inventories that jawboning cannot solve. At present drawdown rates, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is estimated to run dry by September. Commercial stocks, using non-Gulf sources, would struggle to offset this. China remains an unknown.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Last refuge of the scoundrel
Moscow buys time with Washington's Patriot offer.
Trump said the US would let Ukraine produce its own Patriot missile interceptors so “you can’t complain that we’re not giving ‘em enough.” Russia said NATO’s ongoing support for Ukraine “could lead to a catastrophe… for the whole world”.
INTELLIGENCE. Moscow is acting piqued, but a licence for a weapon that takes two