Thailand: The King and ire

Also: the Korean Peninsula, Kiribati, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Libya.

Section from the Ramakien Murals, c1780s, Phra Rabiang, Wat Phra Kaew, Bangkok.

In today’s dispatch:

• THAILAND. Another political sacking risks going too far.

• KOREAN PENINSULA. Yoon offers to ease tensions with Pyongyang.

• KIRIBATI. A pro-China president retains his seat.

• PAKISTAN. AFGHANISTAN. Grim milestones are marked along the Durand Line.

• LIBYA. Instability builds in a divided country.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

THAILAND. The King and ire

Another political sacking risks going too far.

The charter court Wednesday ordered Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s dismissal for “gross ethics violations.” Former opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat said Bangkok’s royalist establishment was trying to “exterminate” democracy.

INTELLIGENCE. The ruling Pheu Thai Party has proposed Chaikasem Nitisiri as Srettha's replacement, opting not to nominate party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, whose father Thaksin – doyen of Thailand's now-struggling democratic movement – is set to face trial on lèse-majesté charges. By sacking Srettha in the wake of last week’s dissolution of the opposition Move Forward party, the military-dominated elite has again shown who is in charge.

FOR BUSINESS. Srettha’s dismissal seemingly ends any pretence the establishment was willing to tolerate Pheu Thai as its preferred populist safety-valve if it meant the more popular Move Forward movement was kept out of power. This could ultimately backfire, should Pheu Thai and Move Forward subsequently join forces, or if Thais return to the streets, but for the moment, neither looks likely. Thailand’s slow political and economic asphyxiation thus continues.

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KOREAN PENINSULA. Heart and Seoul

Yoon offers to ease tensions with Pyongyang.

South Korea’s president Thursday said he was willing to begin cooperation with the North, including through a working-level consultation body. US and South Korean personnel prepared to hold their annual “Ulchi Freedom Shield” exercises.

INTELLIGENCE. The drills, which will involve 19,000 South Korean troops, regularly invite North Korean threats. Yoon Suk Yeol’s conciliatory Liberation Day speech can