That ship has sailed

Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Israel, Palestine, and Brazil.

The loving care of the mother country, Chen Rupeng, 1976, poster, Landsberger Collection, Amsterdam.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• TAIWAN. Saturday’s vote is unlikely to change China’s calculus.

• THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Between Thaksin and Hun Sen looms another uncle.

• MYANMAR. The US lifts sanctions as the junta regains confidence.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The Jewish state’s non-US friends shift course.

• BRAZIL. ‘Fruitful’ discussions may forestall a sour taste.

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TAIWAN. Beyond recall

Saturday’s vote is unlikely to change China’s calculus.

Opposition supporters rallied Friday ahead of a recall vote for 24 of their legislators. Heavy rain was forecast amid claims China was "clearly" interfering with Taiwan's democracy. 24 Chinese air force sorties crossed the median line Thursday.

INTELLIGENCE. Beijing does not want to see the opposition KMT lose its ability to block legislation, but if the recall votes succeed (which is uncertain), it won't make much of a vital difference in cross-Strait relations. While the ruling Democratic People's Party leans towards independence, this remains highly unlikely to be declared. Both sides of politics, and the Taiwan Strait, still have too much riding on the status quo, as uneasy and imperfect as it may be.

FOR BUSINESS. Both China and Taiwan are investing in military deterrence, but economic interdependence, including with the US, is still a bigger factor. And as long as Beijing judges the rewards of reunification don't outweigh the risks of conflict (particularly with the PLA amid an ongoing leadership purge), it will seek advantage through other means, like diplomatic isolation. If Taiwan shifts against the KMT, this could be more pronounced, but not at the risk of war.

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THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Tu steps forward

Between Thaksin and Hun Sen looms another uncle.

Cross-border shelling continued Friday as Thailand's death toll rose to 15 and the US called for a ceasefire. Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra said Bangkok had a right to respond to attacks. Cambodia’s Hun Sen warned of “severe retaliation”.

INTELLIGENCE. Thaksin and Hun Sen are both retired, with their children notionally in