The abyss stares back
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, Australia, and hantavirus.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s threats are met with an ‘unacceptable’ response.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin’s peace offer is neither here nor there.
BRITAIN. Starmer faces an unlikely leadership challenge.
AUSTRALIA. A populist win threatens the right, not the left.
HANTAVIRUS. MV Hondius becomes a petri dish for anxiety.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
IRAN. No laughing matter
Trump’s threats are met with an ‘unacceptable’ response.
Donald Trump said Iran's counterproposal to a peace deal was "totally unacceptable" and Tehran would "be laughing no longer". Brent crude rose 4% in Asian trade as Narendra Modi urged fuel-saving measures to conserve forex reserves.
INTELLIGENCE. Tehran is extending the pain ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, and as oil shortages start to bite. Described as an “atomic bomb” by the regime, the Strait of Hormuz may be double-blocked for trade, but it‘s under Iranian control, and it’s difficult to see this changing without risking US troops and another lengthy forever war. IRGC boats have been sighted, potentially laying mines. The UAE, Kuwait and Qatar have each reported drone attacks.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is in a zugzwang, where every move puts him at further disadvantage. His least-worst option may be to beg Xi’s intervention, which will at least give him a short-term reprieve – on a midterms timescale – even if it endangers long-term US predominance. The question is whether Xi believes involvement is worth the cost. While doing nothing means higher energy prices, China is better placed than any of its strategic rivals to weather the storm.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Schröder's cat
Putin’s peace offer is neither here nor there.
Vladimir Putin said the Ukraine war may be “coming to an end” and he’d be willing to negotiate with Europe via former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder. EU Council President Antonio Costa earlier said there was “potential” for talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Berlin has expressed doubts on Schröder's credibility, with the