The Art of No Deal

NATO, Russia, the US, trade, migration, Brazil, Sudan, and South Sudan.

The Chasseur in the Forest, Caspar David Friedrich, 1814, oil on canvas, private collection, United States.

The five things you need to know today:

• NATO. RUSSIA. As the ceasefire slows, four US soldiers are killed.

• UNITED STATES. TRADE. The White House announces an economic car crash.

• UNITED STATES. MIGRATION. Controversy covers for lacklustre policy.

• BRAZIL. With the former president on trial, attention turns to his wife.

• SUDAN. SOUTH SUDAN. As Khartoum is recaptured, war returns in Juba.

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NATO. RUSSIA. Into the woods

As the ceasefire slows, four US soldiers are killed.

Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday it was "too early" to consider lifting Russia sanctions. Donald Trump conceded the Russians may be "dragging their feet.” Four US soldiers died during an exercise near the Belarusian border, NATO said.

INTELLIGENCE. There are conflicting reports on the soldiers’ deaths. Their vehicle was found in a Lithuanian forest six miles from Belarus. Trump said he had not been briefed. There are conflicting reports too on the status of ceasefire talks, with claims of breaches and new pre-conditions, including total sanctions relief, which is not entirely in Washington's gift. The EU, eyeing stronger measures, has said Russia would need to completely withdraw first.

FOR BUSINESS. The developments are unlikely linked but American voters, increasingly impatient with the war, may see it differently. The US has around 1,000 troops in Lithuania, amid a rotational presence across Europe that fluctuates between 75,000 and 105,000. Around half are in Germany and Poland, where policy tensions are especially acute. Warsaw has admitted it can only sustain operations by itself for a week or two. NATO has appealed for unity.

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UNITED STATES. TRADE. Driving me crazy

The White House announces an economic car crash.

The Nikkei and key Asian indices fell Thursday after Donald Trump announced 25% "permanent" vehicle tariffs, with no exemptions for free trade partners. Japan and Europe slammed the move. Canada said the duties were a "direct attack".

INTELLIGENCE. Canada has been funding billboards across the US describing tariffs as “a tax on your grocery bill”.