The buck drops
The US, China, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, and the Vatican.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. A government run on hubris meets its nemesis.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Allies demur on an anti-Beijing bloc.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Washington threatens to walk from its fake negotiations.
IRAN. Tehran succeeds in stringing out talks.
THE VATICAN. The next pope faces a reckoning on Taiwan.
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UNITED STATES. Pride before the fall
A government run on hubris meets its nemesis.
The dollar fell and Treasury bond yields rose Monday as markets digested Donald Trump's warning that Jerome Powell's "termination cannot come fast enough." Trump said the Supreme Court had been "intimidated by the radical left."
INTELLIGENCE. Railing against independent institutions is nothing new for Trump. Normally, his criticisms of the Fed and the courts would be shrugged off. But amid a wider assault on the foundations of US democracy, and a potential judgment on his ability to fire a figure like Powell without cause, it has accelerated moves away from US assets. And while the markets would usually act as a handbrake for Trump's actions, his rhetoric suggests he won’t be for turning.
FOR BUSINESS. Market reactions will need to get more serious to alter Trump's approach. While the bond market tantrum of 8 April led to a 90-day tariff pause, the underlying objectives (or lack thereof) haven't changed. Beyond the courts and markets, Congress will need to stay Trump's hand. This may soon happen. Trump's approval ratings are dropping in tandem with consumer and business confidence. But whether soon is soon enough is another question.
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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Coalition of the unwilling
Allies demur on an anti-Beijing bloc.
China warned countries against making deals at its expense Monday after reports the US would compel "secondary tariffs". Thailand postponed trade talks with the US Tuesday as new solar panel duties of up to 3,521% were announced.
INTELLIGENCE. Even in the best of circumstances, it would be difficult for the US to force allies, let alone neutrals,