Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. The data centre fallout begins to compute.
PARAGUAY. A bank collapse fells a Trump and Taiwan ally.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Melania seeks to midwife a premature deal.
IRAN. Fake offers are countered with real threats.
BANGLADESH. Garment worker protests could see a reverse-Hasina.
Modelled on the Presidential Daily Brief, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the intelligence you need in the time you have. Subscribe to read all five analyses.
UNITED STATES. AI caramba
The data centre fallout begins to compute.
Asian markets crashed Friday, following a 4.36% fall in the S&P 500 and a 5.52% fall in the Nasdaq. Donald Trump blamed the Democrats. Doubt was cast on Anthropic’s IPO. Texas’s governor-elect called for a moratorium on new data centres.
INTELLIGENCE. Enthusiasm may return with the release of a well-timed METR report, saying Anthropic is building its models at twice last year’s rate (whatever that means) despite a pledge to slow down development. Yet there’s only so many times an unprofitable and incestuous industry can claim the singularity without being met with scepticism or, with a Democratic Congress, scrutiny. And as new data centres get cancelled, momentum elsewhere could stop.
FOR BUSINESS. Alongside war and inflation, the median voter appears to hate AI. And judging from the price action, many investors do as well. With two of its most prominent boosters – Trump and Elon Musk – having egg on their face, the judgment of the rest of the sector is in doubt. As recently in Australia, where an IPO was canned due to a sceptical market, a shift in US ebullience could present a Minsky moment. And that’s even before another rate rise.
PARAGUAY. Run from your money
A bank collapse fells a Trump and Taiwan ally.
President Santiago Peña resigned Thursday as lawmakers moved to impeach him over the collapse of a digital bank he once indirectly owned a stake in. Prosecutors said Peña was being investigated as eight bank executives were arrested.