The choice between war and dishonour
Iran, India, the US, ASEAN, Russia, South Africa, and Peru.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump tries to spin a humiliating deal.
INDIA. UNITED STATES. Stormy seas for the world’s big democracies.
SOUTHEAST ASIA. RUSSIA. Putin brings back the archipelago.
SOUTH AFRICA. Migration riots mask a different story.
PERU. An expat-driven election win deepens domestic fissures.
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IRAN. 14-point TACO
Trump tries to spin a humiliating deal.
A ceremony in Burgenstock was cancelled after Donald Trump signed his Memorandum of Understanding with Iran prior to dinner at the Palace of Versailles. Trump said “We’re going to bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement.”
INTELLIGENCE. Trump probably didn’t want the symbolism of signing a deal in a resort that once hosted Jimmy Carter and was now owned by Qatar. He unlikely had time to consider the symbolism of Versailles. With the first of the MoU’s 14 points, now released, forbidding threats, it’s technically in violation, but no matter. With $300 billion pledged for reconstruction, Iran sees it as the ultimate TACO. Israel’s ambassador to the UN called it “very bad.”
FOR BUSINESS. Oil futures are at the lowest level since March. Traffic in the strait is expected to shortly resume. Structural supply gaps will take time to fill. Morgan Stanley estimates an average of $90 dated Brent between July and September. The Fed is projecting a rate hike on stubborn inflation. Still, Trump was right that the alternative was an “economic catastrophe” on par with the Great Depression, which is the most honest thing he’s said since February.
INDIA. UNITED STATES. When the going gets tough
Stormy seas for the world’s big democracies.
Trump praised Narendra Modi as a “tough negotiator” and “total killer” who “looks like an angel” after a meeting over the deaths of Indian sailors, devoid of Modi’s usual hugs. The Pentagon dropped “Indo” from the name of Pacific Command.
INTELLIGENCE. PACOM's structure still includes India in its area of responsibility, but