The coming storm
The US, Israel, Palestine, Yemen, Algeria, France, and India.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Whether others retaliate or not, the damage is done.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Unpopular at home, Netanyahu journeys abroad.
YEMEN. Claims of US victories suggest the opposite.
ALGERIA. FRANCE. Global strife patches up a broken relationship.
INDIA. Delhi works to plug the holes in its regional strategy.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UNITED STATES. Bitter medicine
Whether others retaliate or not, the damage is done.
Donald Trump said Sunday countries would need to "pay a lot" to have tariffs lifted and "you have to take medicine to fix something". The Hang Seng Index fell 13.2% Monday. China said Friday it would impose 34% duties on all US imports.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump's officials spent the weekend denying a recession was likely, but markets think otherwise. And despite appeasement from smaller players like Vietnam, Israel and Taiwan, markets are also pricing a broader trade war. With China and Canada already laying down the gauntlet, eyes are turning to the EU, with senior officials meeting in Luxembourg today. Governments are under political pressure to act even if it causes more economic pain.
FOR BUSINESS. You don't need to be Trump to shoot yourself in the foot. Leaders from Beijing to Brussels have shown plenty of appetite for self-harm. The White House claims 50 countries have begun negotiations since Wednesday, but even without DOGE cuts, the US doesn’t have the bureaucrats to engage in more than a handful of simultaneous talks. Things will get worse before they get better. The real risk is for the crisis to spread beyond trade.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Travels in the Bibi belt
Unpopular at home, Netanyahu journeys abroad.
Benjamin Netanyahu left Budapest for Washington Sunday, in an impromptu visit aimed at easing 17% US tariffs. The war in Gaza entered its 18th month with a barrage of Hamas rockets. A US-Palestinian was killed in the West Bank.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu will hope a win on trade will cover for his domestic problems, where the courts are moving