The desert of the deal
Iran, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, and Denmark.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump calls time on his own negotiation.
PAKISTAN. Terror disrupts a pilgrimage and a crossroads.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Failing with drones, Putin tries missiles.
SERBIA. Vucic seeks out allies ahead of an early election.
DENMARK. Frederiksen gets a second shot at an existential fight.
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IRAN. Buy the rumour, sell the fake news
Trump calls time on his own negotiation.
Donald Trump said he would not “rush” into a deal with Iran after announcing one had been “largely negotiated” the day before. Republican senators slammed the alleged details, earning a rebuke as “losers”. Oil prices nonetheless fell by 4%.
INTELLIGENCE. Nothing has fundamentally changed, but a $16.8 million short contract placed in the hours ahead of Trump’s first announcement will have done well. If Trump can’t control the narrative, let alone the Strait of Hormuz, he’s at least proving able to prevent any alternative storyline from dominating the market, allowing for profitable short-term speculation. At some point, markets will see the pattern, and it will no longer work, but hope springs eternal.
FOR BUSINESS. The details of the “deal”, such as they are, reportedly included a 60-day truce extension and an end to the US blockade. Essentially a surrender, it’s difficult to see Trump accepting such terms. More believable options remain escalation or third-party mediation over Iran’s uranium. China continues to be the likeliest mediator. Delayed US arms sales to Taiwan may be tied to negotiations therein – a more plausible theory than any in today’s media.
PAKISTAN. The wrong track
Terror disrupts a pilgrimage and a crossroads.
The Baloch Liberation Army claimed an attack on a passenger train in Quetta, killing at least 24 and injuring 70. Kabul condemned the strike while the Pakistan Taliban said it would honour a ceasefire until the end of Eid al-Adha Saturday.
INTELLIGENCE. It’s not uncommon for terrorist attacks to occur during Eid al-Adha,