The drugs don't work

The US, the EU, Chile, Peru, Ukraine, Russia, Azerbaijan, and South Sudan.

The Quack Frog, Arthur Rackham, illustration in Vernon Stanley Jones's Aesop's Fables: A New Translation, 1912, William Heinemann, London.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. EUROPEAN UNION. Washington moots pharmaceutical tariffs.

• CHILE. PERU. New levies could help China in the Americas.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s tough words are yet to be matched by deeds.

• AZERBAIJAN. RUSSIA. Moscow and Baku step back from the brink.

• SOUTH SUDAN. The world’s poorest state turns 14.

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UNITED STATES. EUROPEAN UNION. Heal thyself

Washington moots pharmaceutical tariffs.

Donald Trump said he may declare pharmaceutical tariffs at "like 200%" to enter into force in 12-18 months. Ireland, the biggest drugs exporter to the US, said the EU had until 1 August to conclude a trade deal or face general duties of 50%.

INTELLIGENCE. The Trump administration has been mulling pharmaceutical tariffs for some time, and unlike country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs, these would likely stand up under legal challenge. Yet it's hard not to see such sector-specific duties as being unrelated to an impending framework deal with the EU, which, separately, is facing tensions with China over medical device restrictions. Brussels said Monday it plans to put a proposal to Washington today.

FOR BUSINESS. The EU is reportedly aiming for a similar deal to that recently agreed between the US and UK, though this itself remains fragile, with British steelmakers potentially still facing 50% US tariffs. The EU also has sensitive sectors, including wine and aerospace to consider, though none are arguably as sensitive as medicine. Still, if Trump were to place s.232 tariffs on drugs, it would only harm his voters, many of whom already stand to lose their Medicaid.

Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.

CHILE. PERU. Bent copper

New levies could help China in the Americas.

Copper futures jumped 12% to a record high after Donald Trump said he would introduce a 50% duty on the metal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a s.232 national security investigation into copper imports was complete.

INTELLIGENCE. The US already sources half its copper domestically, mostly from