The EU: Continental divide
Also: Poland, Belarus, Bulgaria, the Red Sea, and Argentina.
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EUROPEAN UNION. Continental divide
A split between the centre-left and the far-right.
Votes were split between the far-right and the pro-European centre-left, Dutch exit polls showed Thursday in the first day of voting in European Parliamentary elections. Polls opened in Ireland and the Czech Republic Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. The Netherlands is just one of 27 member states but is seen as something of a bellwether and, if exit polls can be believed, that suggests a large swing to the Identity and Democracy Group (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), at the expense of Ursula von der Leyen's European People's Party. That could not just have implications for the composition of parliament, but her presidency of the European Commission.
FOR BUSINESS. Von der Leyen's rival conservative Spitzenkandidats for the presidency are Denmark's Anders Vistisen from the ID group and Ryszard Legutko and Nicola Procaccini from the ECR. These MEPs, however, are unlikely to get a look in. The centre-left's Nicolas Schmit from Luxembourg has a better chance, as do potential compromise candidates like Mario Draghi, the former central bank chief once called in to rescue a disunited Italy.
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POLAND. BELARUS. An iron curtain descends
Poles try to keep out migrants and Russian interference.
A Polish border guard died Thursday, the military said, after being stabbed by migrants attempting to cross from Belarus. Warsaw last month announced a $2.5 billion project to build walls and surveillance structures along the border.
INTELLIGENCE. Besides its potential impact on EU elections, the death will be used by Poland’s opposition to hound Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has tried to calm anti-migrant sentiment. Tusk can at least frame his wall project as part of a hawkish anti-Putin stance. Russia and its ally Belarus have previously helped migrants cross into Europe as a political weapon. This makes the recent visit of Hungary’s foreign minister to Minsk all the more awkward.
FOR BUSINESS. Despite being one of the strongest opponents of migration during the last EU border crisis, Hungary is edging closer to Russia. Seeking stabler ties with Belarus is part of that strategy. It won’t endear Budapest to the current government in Warsaw, but Viktor Orban, with but one true friend in recovering Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, doesn’t seem to mind. Walls are going up elsewhere, including Finland, which has also seen a migration surge.
BULGARIA. Sixth time lucky?
Sofia holds another snap election.
A poll Thursday showed Bulgarians divided between two pro-EU blocs, an ultranationalist pro-Russian movement and a party representing the Turkish minority. Bulgaria will hold a national vote coinciding with the EU elections Sunday.
INTELLIGENCE. The pro-Russian Revival Party is polling at 15.2%, almost the same level as the second-placed We Continue the Change (PP) party. PP and its larger centre-right rival, GERB, formed a short-lived coalition after last year's snap polls, but it failed to last a cycle of anti-graft protests. Polls for PP and GERB have fallen in recent months, with support for Revival rising. Many Bulgarians, bored with the rolling scandals in Sofia, are expected to stay home.
FOR BUSINESS. Bulgaria is almost certain to remain in the EU. The bloc’s poorest state, it receives an inordinate advantage from membership, particularly following its part accession to the Schengen area in March and its potential take-up of the euro. Still, an unstable or Russian-leaning Bulgaria could complicate European unity on Ukraine, as well as reopen questions over mafia influence. The leader of the Turkish minority party is sanctioned in the US and UK.
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THE RED SEA. Missile in action
The Houthis are well-armed and increasingly dangerous.
Yemen's Houthi movement said it would intensify its attacks on Israel Thursday, following claims it hit two ships in Haifa, as well as the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea. The US said it had destroyed eight Houthi drones in the last day.
INTELLIGENCE. A hit on the Eisenhower seems improbable but the Houthis are becoming more than a nuisance, with its latest missile design – ‘The Palestine’ – resembling an Iranian hypersonic. The group’s increased belligerence will continue to test the patience of Iran’s allies, that is, unless Russia fills the gap. Pro-Kremlin outlets have suggested Moscow may arm the group to hit back at Washington allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against Russian targets.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia has cordial ties with the Houthis but is no ally. Its deal on ship safety is unlikely to extend to supporting attacks on Israel (Russia has arguably worked to ensure its proxies in Syria don’t join Hezbollah in joining Iran-backed attacks). But regardless of who supplies the Houthis, they will remain a formidable force until such time as a comprehensive deal is reached. They are still technically at war with Yemen’s Saudi-backed government in Aden.
ARGENTINA. How the West was won over
Milei goes from politically incorrect to geopolitically feted.
Javier Milei will travel to Italy’s G7 summit, his office said Thursday. The USS George Washington joined drills with Argentina last week, the first such operation since 2010. Last month, NATO announced steps toward a partnership.
INTELLIGENCE. While polling well at home despite swingeing austerity measures and high inflation, Milei remains a controversial figure abroad, due to an often vulgar election campaign and hard-right views. His embrace by Western strategic partners, following plaudits from the IMF and business leaders, suggests however the US and allies will be willing to look past his populist rhetoric. Argentines may be less forgiving. Winter is in and homelessness is rising.
FOR BUSINESS. Milei can continue to fault his spendthrift predecessors for Argentina’s dire economy but eventually he will take the blame, particularly if Congress successfully attributes any impasse on reform measures to his obstinance, not theirs. Milei’s tools are otherwise limited. He sacked another 70,000 public servants Wednesday and has held onto food aid for the poor pending audits. His constant travel, no longer economy class, is being questioned.