The EU: Holding the fortress

Also: Israel, Iran, the Caucasus, Brazil, and Haiti.

A view of the Royal Palace of Pena in the Sintra mountains, Manuel Luis da Costa, c1839-47, lithograph, Biblioteca Nacional de Portugal, Lisbon.

In today’s dispatch:

• EUROPE. The external border remains the source of internal division.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. The region prepares for the next round of retaliatory strikes.

• THE CAUCASUS. Azerbaijan reject’s Armenia’s latest peace offer.

• BRAZIL. The noose tightens on Jair Bolsonaro.

• HAITI. Government infighting distracts from the war on the gangs.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.

EUROPE. Holding the fortress

The external border remains the source of internal division.

EU leaders met in Brussels Monday for closed-door talks on irregular migration alongside summits with Ukraine and Gulf countries. Ahead of the meeting, Ursula von der Leyen called for the idea of non-EU "return hubs" to be explored.

INTELLIGENCE. The topic of third-country processing will be galling to many of Europe's partners, after the bloc criticised Australia and the UK for pursuing the same thing. Yet following Italy's successful deal with Albania to process asylum seekers (the first batch arrived Wednesday), all ideas are on the table. The challenge, however, won't so much be the legalities or logistics, but a common European approach (as it is for virtually all the EU's challenges).

FOR BUSINESS. Europe’s biggest problem is Europe. As the bloc gets bigger and its politics more polarised, a unified approach becomes harder. Migration may now be causing sufficient pain for a solution to be found (the other EU cliche is that union must be forged in crisis), but only after every compromise is wrung out of it. The alternative is a continuation of individual approaches, from Germany’s border controls to Poland’s refusal to consider asylum claims.

---

---

ISRAEL. IRAN. Ready, unsteady

The region prepares for the next round of retaliatory strikes.

Israel was "ready" to attack Iran, officials briefed the media Wednesday, with targeted strikes to occur before the US election. Israel had agreed with Washington not to target nuclear or oil facilities. Iran vacated its Kharg Island terminal.

INTELLIGENCE. Iran said it would respond "decisively" and has asked the UN to intervene, but another round of recriminations may be unnecessary if