The EU: Von der Leyen and the lambs

Also: Canada, Bolivia, Cuba, and Sudan.

A Lion attacking a goat, Johan Wenzel Peter, 1785, oil on canvas, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• EUROPE. The European Commission begins to bare its teeth.

• CANADA. Trudeau’s party struggles in a crucial by-election.

• BOLIVIA. Morales calls his supporters to the streets.

• CUBA. Havana faces critical shortages of almost everything.

• SUDAN. The military turns to an old foe to salvage its campaign.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

EUROPE. Von der Leyen and the lambs

The European Commission begins to bare its teeth.

Thierry Breton quit the European Commission Monday ahead of Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of a new bench. France named Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne as its candidate. 'Storm Boris' killed at least 15 in several countries.

INTELLIGENCE. Von der Leyen, a conservative, survived June’s European Parliament election but will be forced to react to the populist winds of change, which have cut a swathe through Brussels. Centrist Breton, the markets commissioner, held a powerful post but his position was untenable, particularly after his many public spats. He left with an excoriating letter published to his favour social media platform, X, but his departure shows who’s really boss.

FOR BUSINESS. Von der Leyen needs a team that can respond to the rise of populism, and the EU’s economic challenges, as encapsulated by a report from former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi. The two aims aren’t mutually exclusive, but they will be hard for as long as commissioners and member states stay intransigent. At least with Emmanuel Macron diminished and Olaf Scholz unpopular, von der Leyen faces few threats to her personal authority.

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CANADA. Liberal tears

Trudeau’s party struggles in a crucial by-election.

Results were split early Tuesday in the election for Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. The Liberals, which previously won 43% of the seat's votes, were at 27.6%, even with the Bloc Québécois and just ahead of the New Democratic Party.

INTELLIGENCE. The seat had been held by ex-justice minister David Lametti and had been Liberal since its formation. Seen as a referendum on his leadership, the loss will