The firing line
Ukraine, Russia, France, Turkey, Australia, and the Americas.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump calls on Zelensky to surrender.
FRANCE. Lecornu has so far vindicated Macron’s gamble.
TURKEY. An F-35 deal risks setting a precedent.
AUSTRALIA. A social media ban risks sinking the ship.
THE AMERICAS. New tests for the Donroe Doctrine.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
🎄Upgrade your subscription or give it as a gift to access all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 160 countries.🎄
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Executive order
Trump calls on Zelensky to surrender.
After meeting European leaders, Volodymyr Zelensky said he would present a “refined” proposal to the US but had “no right to give anything away”. Donald Trump said the “decaying” region’s leaders were “weak” and Zelensky was “losing.”
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is frustrated his own proposal hasn’t been accepted by either Kyiv or Moscow. He sees unrealistic European intransigence as the factor, but Europe won’t give up until it has at least exhausted options for using frozen Russian assets. Zelensky has little left to lose, and his own red lines are less certain. Vladimir Putin thinks he’s on a roll, and most likely is. To the east of the fallen city of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad is now under assault.
FOR BUSINESS. If Zelensky doesn’t surrender or isn’t replaced by someone who will, Putin will likely fight on until at least the spring, when melting snow makes advancing harder. This could represent the worst of worlds for Kyiv, but an ignominious surrender on Trump’s present (Russian) terms could merely seed another crisis. Ukraine is battle-tested and, even in defeat, could be dangerous to Russia and the West. Putin has called up reservists for “training” in 2026.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.
FRANCE. Le phew
Lecornu has so far vindicated Macron’s gamble.
The National Assembly narrowly passed Sebastien Lecornu’s 2026 social security budget Tuesday, giving the prime minister a victory after fiscal battles ousted his three predecessors. GDP would grow 0.2% in Q4, the central bank said.
INTELLIGENCE. Few thought Lecornu would survive the Assembly’s brutal arithmetic,