The forever warlord

Ukraine, Russia, Germany, Britain, the EU, Mercosur, Israel, and Palestine.

Clock, Evgeny Rukhin, 1975, oil on canvas, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin works to show he has time on his side.

• GERMANY. Statistically improbable deaths shake a local election.

• BRITAIN. Starmer’s omnishambles deepens.

• EUROPE. MERCOSUR. France softens its opposition to a major trade deal.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Even if he wins the war, Netanyahu has lost the peace.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A stopped clock

Putin works to show he has time on his side.

Donald Trump said he planned to hold talks with Volodymyr Zelensky after today’s virtual meeting on support for Ukraine, hosted by France. Trump said he was “very disappointed” in Vladimir Putin as his deadline for the war to end expired.

INTELLIGENCE. As the deadline passed to end the war, or have his trading partners be hit by new "secondary tariffs", Putin was caught on a hot mic Wednesday joking with Xi Jinping about living forever, thanks to continuous organ transplantation. Against rumours around Trump’s own health, the leaked conversation was unlikely an accident. Putin is trying to stress his lack of urgency in other ways too, including by reiterating his take-it-or-leave-it terms to Ukraine.

FOR BUSINESS. Putin won't last forever, and nor will Russia's war economy, but they both likely have more time than many of Ukraine's supporters in the West. Unless real screws are turned and fast, any armistice will thus likely be on Russia's terms. Europe's attempts to do this have been blunted by internal disagreement. America's approach continues to change by the day. Moscow said Wednesday it had captured "about half" of Kupiansk in Kharkiv oblast.

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GERMANY. Seven deadly campaigns

Statistically improbable deaths shake a local election.

A seventh Alternative für Deutschland candidate in North Rhine-Westphalia died as party leader Alice Weidel said the deaths were “statistically almost impossible.” Berlin said Germans were being used as “disposable agents” for Moscow.

INTELLIGENCE. Around 3,000 seats are up for grabs in local elections across North