The futures that didn't jump in the night
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Russia, France, Spain, Japan, and Indonesia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. SAUDI ARABIA. As oil prices peace, war continues.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Efforts to merge conflicts may backfire.
FRANCE. SPAIN. Drought, heat, and fire take their toll.
JAPAN. Takaichi sails between inflation and the bond market.
INDONESIA. The knives come out for a chaotic presidency.
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IRAN. SAUDI ARABIA. Have Abqaiq and eat it
As oil prices peace, war continues.
Oil futures extended losses as Donald Trump claimed "good talks" with Iran. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported fresh drone attacks, including at Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility near the Persian Gulf, which processes 7% of the world's oil.
INTELLIGENCE. Superficially, the strike on Abqaiq – the world’s biggest oil processing facility – means 7% less refinery demand. But its message – on the same place the Houthis targeted in 2019 during the Yemeni civil war – is that Iran’s proxies are ready, willing and able to escalate, even if talks are underway (which Iran says they’re not). Abqaiq’s 2019 strike cut Saudi production in half for weeks and saw Brent futures soar 20%. Luckily, it was a one-off.
FOR BUSINESS. Traders either believe everything Trump says (even the contradictions) or there’s rife manipulation. Reports of coordinated shorting via opaque exchanges like Hyperliquid, and the wealth accumulated by Trump’s family on similar platforms, might offer a clue. But while lower oil prices will be welcome, the lack of direction, or any apparent plan, risks a wider midterms backlash. An Ipsos poll shows only one in three Americans now back the war.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Let's you and him fight
Efforts to merge conflicts may backfire.
Volodymyr Zelensky prepared to meet Trump Tuesday ahead of Lindsey Graham’s funeral and a Senate vote on Russian sanctions. Kyiv earlier said Moscow was giving Tehran satellite intelligence, and hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Analytical framing of the wars in Ukraine and Iran as one conflict