The Middle East: Widening mire

Also: the UK, the Czech Republic, Overseas France, and Burkina Faso.

The Scapegoat (Dead Sea at Osdoom), William Holman Hunt, 1854-56, oil on canvas, Lady Lever Art Gallery, Merseyside.

In today’s dispatch:

• MIDDLE EAST. Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah reaches Syria and Iraq.

• BRITAIN. Keir Starmer faces a grilling.

• CZECHIA. The Pirate Party gives the prime minister a reality check.

• OVERSEAS FRANCE. Barnier moves to act in Martinique and New Caledonia.

• BURKINA FASO. The junta spies enemies everywhere.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

MIDDLE EAST. Widening mire

Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah reaches Syria and Iraq.

Syrian air defences intercepted Israeli missiles over the port of Tartus, home to a Russian naval base, Tuesday. Iraqi militants claimed responsibility for a strike on Israel’s Golan Heights. Lebanon said only the US could stop the spiral.

INTELLIGENCE. The ongoing barrage on Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon, and the piecemeal response from the Iran-backed militia, suggests a very one-sided conflict, but Hezbollah has thousands of fighters still inside Syria and Iran has other proxies, notably in Iraq, which it can employ. Iran’s president has so far proffered an olive branch of sorts, touring the diplomatic circuit in New York, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guards will likely want to fight fire with fire.

FOR BUSINESS. Beyond the involvement of other proxies, the conflict risks escalation should Syria (nowadays largely independent of Iran) get involved, or Russia get caught in the middle. Russia recently set up an observation post in Syria’s Golan Heights. It is allegedly looking to send missiles, via Iran, to the Houthis, who will send fighters to Syria. Into the mix is Turkey, which wants to replace the US in eastern Syria and northern Iraq, and win favour in Palestine.

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BRITAIN. How not to make sausages

Keir Starmer faces a grilling.

Keir Starmer defended his multiple stays at a donor's penthouse Tuesday, amid a row over donated clothes and football tickets. Starmer promised Britons a brighter future, but his speech was overshadowed by a gaffe on “sausages” in Gaza.

INTELLIGENCE. Starmer meant to say “hostages”, but while sausage-gate is silly, the expenses scandal isn’t. Starmer knows he has years before another election and a large majority in the Commons, but