The punishing sea
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Sudan, India, and Nepal.
Hello,
Apologies for the publishing delay. Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Like Epic Fury, Project Freedom risks boiling the ocean.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Shorn of pretence, the Hezbollah war heats up.
SUDAN. An attack on Khartoum is blamed on Abu Dhabi.
INDIA. Modi’s party has a historic win in West Bengal.
NEPAL. Kathmandu reopens a Sino-Indian border dispute.
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IRAN. Ceasefire extinguisher
Like Epic Fury, Project Freedom risks boiling the ocean.
Fujairah was hit, and the UAE intercepted over a dozen other missiles, as the US claimed to have destroyed six IRGC boats following Iran’s efforts to stop naval escorts via Operation Project Freedom, the successor to Operation Epic Fury.
INTELLIGENCE. Project Freedom claims to have escorted two US-flagged ships out of Hormuz. Tehran disputes this and says it forced a US frigate to turn back (earlier claims of a hit have been denied, but a Stratotanker may have been downed). All other vessels, including those of the ostensibly neutral states Donald Trump claimed his rebranded operation was meant to assist, remain stuck. Brent crude remains above $110. The UAE has said it might retaliate.
FOR BUSINESS. The US seems no closer to breaking Iran’s blockade. As with any military solution to removing the residual nuclear threat, Washington would need a lot more than the estimated 100 aircraft and 15,000 troops currently deployed. Bush 1’s Desert Storm, against much smaller Iraq, began with 750,000 troops. Bush 2’s Coalition of the Willing had 500,000 allied personnel. Nobody has yet joined Trump’s US-Israeli effort, though the UAE may in time.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Timing is everything
Shorn of pretence, the Hezbollah war heats up.
Lebanon’s president said talks with Israel would not be held “at this time” as the speaker of parliament said diplomacy could not continue amid the war. Fighting stepped up in Lebanon’s south, with both sides using first-person-view drones.
INTELLIGENCE. There was never any real ceasefire in Lebanon as the guns fell silent