Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

The real thing

Colombia, Ukraine, Russia, the Balkans, Cyprus, Israel, and Iran.

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Michael Feller
Oct 20, 2025
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Women gathering leaves of the coca plant, Henry Walter Bates, c. 1867, engraving, Wellcome Collection, London.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • COLOMBIA. The Pentagon pivots the war on drugs.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin channels Trump’s inner developer.

  • THE BALKANS. Srpska’s president steps aside but doesn’t step away.

  • CYPRUS. A glimmer of hope in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  • ISRAEL. IRAN. Diplomatic agreements, old and new, are torn up.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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COLOMBIA. Coke zero

The Pentagon pivots the war on drugs.

Donald Trump said late Sunday he would raise tariffs on Colombia after earlier calling President Gustavo Petro “an illegal drug leader”. Pete Hegseth said the US had killed three after striking a vessel associated with a Colombian militia.

INTELLIGENCE. The focus appears to have shifted from Venezuela, with Nicolas Maduro’s dominion, purged of likely disloyalty, showing few signs of cracking. In terms of both regime change and disrupting narcotics, Colombia is an easier target. Petro faces stronger political opposition. His military, long reliant on support Trump says he’ll now end (despite a waiver), may be more willing to switch sides. And, unlike Venezuela, Colombia actually produces cocaine.

FOR BUSINESS. Dumping Petro or attacking entities he’s trying to negotiate with won’t end Colombia’s drugs trade, now estimated to be its top export. And it may simply push it elsewhere, whether to Peru (in constitutional turmoil), Ecuador (battling indigenous unions as well as cartels), or Bolivia (with a new centrist president nonetheless reliant on votes from coca-growing regions). But it may send a message to Mexico, as well as impatient voters at home.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Location, location

Putin channels Trump’s inner developer.

Donald Trump told Fox News Vladimir Putin had “won certain property” Sunday, after reports emerged of a shouting-match at Friday’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump appeared taken with a proposal for a Bering Strait tunnel.

INTELLIGENCE. The 70-mile “Putin-Trump” tunnel, which the Kremlin proposed Elon

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