The sheep and the scapegoats
Iran, the Red Sea, China, Japan, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The deal gets moving, and the blame gets shifting.
RED SEA. As Hormuz opens, another strait comes close to blows.
CHINA. Beijing seeks to undercut Pax Silica.
JAPAN. Yen speculation masks structural factors.
UNITED STATES. Nasdaq braces for a mega-cap meme stock.
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IRAN. Qatar and thrust
The deal gets moving, and the blame gets shifting.
JD Vance said the US had lifted oil sanctions on Iran, which had agreed to IAEA inspections. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to maintain a presence in Lebanon. Key Republicans slammed a US-Iran “deconfliction cell” involving Qatar but not Israel.
INTELLIGENCE. Few truces leave everyone happy, but this one has united the left and right in opprobrium. The criticism has also united the pro- and anti-Israel factions of the Republican Party, with the former increasingly blaming Qatar, whose prime minister was photographed with Vance and Jared Kushner using a US government laptop, for undue influence. Members of the latter faction have meanwhile blamed Israel for an explosion at a Qatari LNG facility.
FOR BUSINESS. Doha says the incident at Ras Laffan, which killed 13, was a technical accident. But building on claims by the now ex-Republican pundit Tucker Carlson (i.e., “Qatarlson” per Fox News’s Mark Levin), many in MAGA blame Mossad. This is, of course, unfalsifiable, but in a situation both surprising and opaque, rumours are treated as news. And amid conjecture about Vance’s role in defining the deal against Trump, it could become the main story.
RED SEA. Mandeb for all seasons
As Hormuz opens, another strait comes close to blows.
WTI futures fell below $75 as traffic resumed in the Strait of Hormuz, albeit amid conflicting route advice. Somali media said Israeli troops had arrived in breakaway Somaliland. Gunfire hit a plane in Aden as a tanker was approached offshore.
INTELLIGENCE. The incidents in Yemen could be pirates or militias unrelated to the