The siege of MAGA
The US, the EU, Mexico, Canada, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. The midterms may be the least of the GOP’s worries.
EUROPE. A US trade war threatens to return.
MEXICO. CANADA. As Sheinbaum helps Washington, Carney does the opposite.
IRAN. Trump’s military options seem stuck.
AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN. Border strikes resume, as does the blame.
UNITED STATES. When elephants fight
The midterms may be the least of the GOP’s worries.
Donald Trump was expected to tout his economic wins in Tuesday’s State of the Union, the Wall Street Journal said. The gunman who breached Mar-a-Lago Sunday was reported to have been a Trump supporter upset about Jeffrey Epstein.
INTELLIGENCE. Polls paint a dismal picture as Republicans prepare for the midterms, but Trump’s main concern will be less losing Congress to the Democrats, which is expected, than seeing a split in his base. Divisions are widening over Israel. Supporters of Robert F Kennedy are peeling off over glyphosate production. But the bigger vulnerability is over the Epstein files. As British police arrested Peter Mandelson, the FBI’s director was partying at the Olympics.
FOR BUSINESS. A number of Epstein victims will attend the SOTU, in lieu of several Democrats and the women’s ice hockey team. And even if Trump sticks to the economic script, attendees will likely evince scepticism. Q4 GDP disappointed. Growth throughout 2025 has been virtually jobless. Inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and with the tariff cudgel gone, the fiscal deficit will grow further. 58% of voters deem Trump’s first year to have been a failure.
EUROPE. The games people play
A US trade war threatens to return.
Trump warned countries not to use the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling to revisit recent deals, threatening higher rates for anyone who “plays games”. The EU paused the ratification of its deal with the US as India deferred scheduled talks.
INTELLIGENCE. The ratification pause is indicative of an evolving transatlantic