The sincerest form of flattery
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Germany, Spain, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran announces a deal. Trump threatens to bomb the Gulf.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu escalates a war of political survival.
GERMANY. Rumours abound of a chancellery spill.
SPAIN. Sanchez’s party is in trouble, but that’s nothing new.
CUBA. An attack on Havana is looking more inevitable.
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IRAN. Mirror, mirror
Tehran announces a deal. Trump threatens to bomb the Gulf.
Donald Trump said a draft memorandum released by Iran was a “fabrication” and he wouldn’t move forward with any deal if Saudi Arabia and others didn’t join the Abraham Accords. Trump added he’d “blow up” Oman if it didn’t “behave”.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil is only slightly higher despite further military strikes and Iran’s role reversal – with Trump now playing hard to get. The IRGC has meanwhile turned away more ships in Hormuz and attacked a US base in Kuwait. But while markets still think Trump will chicken out, he’s at pains to say he’s unbothered by oil prices or the midterms (suggesting MAGA primary selections augur a landslide). The appearance of winning the war remains vital to him.
FOR BUSINESS. By releasing its draft, Iran not only imitated Trump's fait accompli negotiating style, but called his bluff. Traders rightly see this as an existential war for Iran and not for the US. Yet having come so far, it's politically existential for Trump, the economy be damned. The MoU, whether fake or a trial balloon, may have been better than returning to war, or delaying the Strait’s reopening, but it was objectively humiliating, and a shadow of the JCPOA.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Tyre pressure
Netanyahu escalates a war of political survival.
Israel dramatically expanded its combat zone in southern Lebanon and ordered most of Tyre to leave. An Israeli soldier was killed by a Hezbollah drone. Benjamin Netanyahu’s party said it would advance a Knesset dissolution bill Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. The Knesset’s impending dissolution, which will lead to an election