The Strait and the crooked
Iran, China, Russia, Taiwan, Cuba, and Greenland.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump is better at monetising the crisis than ending it.
CHINA. RUSSIA. Xi and Putin eye a deal that’s win-win and lose-lose.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Taipei’s security question becomes more urgent.
CUBA. Washington and Havana dismantle the off-ramps.
GREENLAND. The US sends envoys to inspect the territory.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
IRAN. Follow the money
Trump is better at monetising the crisis than ending it.
Oil fell 2% Monday after Donald Trump said he would "hold off" a military attack "scheduled for tomorrow" at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. A large block of WTI crude shorts was placed 30 minutes before the announcement.
INTELLIGENCE. As Trump cries wolf and as signs of insider trading become more explicit, the market is reacting with greater suspicion. And as the TACO trade gives way to a realisation that Trump’s stuck in a quagmire, there’s a danger Iran will misread his bluffs, leading to an accident in Hormuz. A new authority has been set up to extract tolls in the strait, as well as provide crypto-based maritime insurance. More Iran-friendly ships are ignoring the US blockade.
FOR BUSINESS. Well-informed traders may be benefiting from the weekly cycle of threats and pivots, but physical oil shortages are getting serious. Tehran claims the US has extended a sanctions waiver on its oil to deal with the gap (a waiver for Russian crude has been confirmed), but supply is still short by at least 10 million barrels per day. The IEA warned Monday that commercial reserves will run out in weeks, despite record releases of strategic stockpiles.
CHINA. RUSSIA. Necks on the pipeline
Xi and Putin eye a deal that's win-win and lose-lose.
Vladimir Putin departed for his 25th visit to China, saying he had an “unprecedented level” of trust with Xi Jinping. The Kremlin confirmed the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would be discussed amid reports that LNG export costs had doubled.
INTELLIGENCE. Beyond Ukrainian attacks on its terminals, the costs to Russia of