The TACOs come home to roost
Iran, Israel, the UK, the EU, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump makes a warning he can’t easily retract.
ISRAEL. Dimona risks becoming a problem bigger than Hormuz.
BRITAIN. Iran strikes at the heart of the special relationship.
EUROPE. The hard right has a good day but not a great one.
UNITED STATES. Amid falling polls, election integrity is sabotaged.
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IRAN. Triple threat
Trump makes a warning he can’t easily retract.
Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants “starting with the biggest one” if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours. The IRGC said it would hit energy, IT and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf if attacked.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has swung again from off-ramps to escalation, but with each step, it’s getting harder for him to chicken out. Iran will not want to lose its energy, but hardliners, already seeing themselves in an existential war, may see this as an opportunity to merely strike harder and bring on an invasion that could stymie the US for decades. Moreover, collateral damage is baked in. Iran’s grid is connected to its neighbours. Its biggest power plant is nuclear.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump needn’t attack Bushehr to cause fallout. After Ras Laffan, Iran has already shown its ability to damage Gulf infrastructure. We have until Monday evening Eastern Time to know. Amid the uncertainty, oil prices are hovering, but Asian stocks fell at the open. The regime’s threats to “completely close” the Strait of Hormuz may seem semantic, but there’s more lasting damage it can do, including with the new types of missiles it’s begun to use.
ISRAEL. Ultimatum frisbee
Dimona risks becoming a problem bigger than Hormuz.
Nearly 200 were wounded after Iranian missiles hit the cities of Arad and Dimona, with the latter seen as a warning to the nearby Negev Nuclear Research Center, where Israel enriches uranium. Trump indicated he might visit Israel in April.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s visit, to collect the Israel Prize, may need to be delayed if