The US: And now for the hard part
Also: Germany, Ireland, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Trump can’t do everything but there’s some he might.
GERMANY. An unworkable coalition finally collapses.
IRELAND. A snap election is called for 29 November.
MIDDLE EAST. Trump may pull a reverse Nixon on Israel.
CENTRAL ASIA. The region edges away from Russia and China.
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UNITED STATES. And now for the hard part
Trump can’t do everything but there’s some he might.
Donald Trump told supporters Wednesday his victory was for "the MAGA movement" and Republicans had a "powerful mandate" from American voters. Beside his family, Trump gave special mention to Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy Jr.
INTELLIGENCE. Where economic policy featured in the campaign against Trump, it was in attacks on his contentious proposals for tariff hikes and tax cuts. Yet both these policies remain woolly and, even with a Republican majority in the House, they won’t be straightforward to enact. Lower risk and quicker wins may be achievable through regulatory reform, which is where Musk (government administration, standards) and Kennedy (health, agriculture) will come in.
FOR BUSINESS. As in Trump's first term, tariffs seem more likely to be a negotiating ploy than a policy goal. While he's said they’re "beautiful" (an adjective used for many things), they will unlikely go beyond the targeted measures already employed. Permanent tax cuts are likely to be pursued but could take time. And the desire to increase defence funding may override the urgency, particularly if moderates with a ranked-choice base hold Congress’s deciding vote.
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GERMANY. Scholz gets real
An unworkable coalition finally collapses.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz effectively ended his three-party coalition Wednesday after sacking Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Scholz said a vote of confidence was planned for Wednesday, which could pave the way for snap elections.
INTELLIGENCE. Tension between Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and Lindner’s Free Democrats had been apparent for months. But