The US: Autumn of the patriarch
Also: Guyana, Venezuela, Finland, Somalia, and West Africa.
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UNITED STATES. Autumn of the patriarch
Voters and allies worry about the President’s age.
59% of Americans consider Joe Biden and Donald Trump too old for another term, an Ipsos poll showed Sunday. 27% thought only Biden was too old. Republicans asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to invoke the 25th Amendment.
INTELLIGENCE. Invoking the 25th on account of Biden’s alleged mental incapacitation seems unlikely. And there are reasons it could have equally been invoked for Trump. Yet serious questions are being raised about Biden’s capacity to lead, which will diminish his chances in November and embolden US adversaries. US allies are especially worried. Trump on Sunday said he would "encourage" Russia to attack NATO members that don't spend enough on defence.
FOR BUSINESS. Biden’s political troubles belie a strong US economy, at least on the surface. The S&P 500 hit a record 5000 points on Friday. CEO confidence has turned positive for the first time in two years. January job numbers were strong, with rising wages. But on seasonally unadjusted terms, payrolls dropped by 2.6 million and polls continue to show that few voters believe the ‘Bidenomics’ story. Indeed, more believe Trump will be a better economic manager.
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GUYANA. VENEZUELA. A different kind of drill
Border tensions increase amid new oil licences.
Caracas defended its right to bolster its presence near the disputed border on Sunday, saying Guyana had granted illegal oil concessions in the Essequibo region. ExxonMobil said it would continue to boost production offshore Guyana.
INTELLIGENCE. Following US threats to reinstate economic sanctions after moves against the opposition, Caracas likely seeks to merely underscore threats of its own. Yet with military build-ups expensive and often self-fulfilling, an invasion of Essequibo cannot be ruled out. Exxon and others are showing sangfroid – and their prospects off Guyana could be worth the risk – but the region is taking fewer chances. Brazil last week also increased its border presence.
FOR BUSINESS. Irrespective of his designs on Guyana, Nicolas Maduro won’t leave power without a fight. Migrant repatriation flights have been grounded for two weeks amid fears of a Venezuelan crime wave in New York. Russia has (again) hinted at a military base. Experience suggests Maduro won’t back down. In 2019, Venezuela forced Exxon to abandon previous activities off Guyana when it attempted to land a military helicopter on one of its survey ships.
FINLAND. So near to Russia
NATO’s newest member elects a new president.
Finns elected former prime minister Alexander Stubb as president on Sunday. Finland on Thursday extended its border closure with Russia until April. Helsinki says Moscow has sent migrants to the frontier as a response to it joining NATO.
INTELLIGENCE. Though largely ceremonial, Finland’s president has a role in foreign and strategic policy. Stubb replaces Sauli Niinisto, nicknamed the "Putin Whisperer", who retires after two terms. His election reflects a hardening stance among the once-neutral Finns and has been welcomed by NATO allies and Ukraine. Not so Russia. Beyond sending refugees, Moscow has reportedly reinforced the border with a new Railway Troops unit in Murmansk.
FOR BUSINESS. NATO is currently undertaking its biggest-ever exercise, involving 90,000 troops from the alliance and Sweden, which hopes to join pending the agreement of Russia-friendly member Hungary. Tensions with Russia have reached fever-pitch in recent weeks, with numerous warnings of a potential war. But the bigger risk is not so much an invasion of Europe, which even Trump would be hard-pressed to ignore, but the bloc’s broken arms industry.
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HORN OF AFRICA. Drawing in
Regional powers get caught in the Somaliland dispute.
Three UAE soldiers and a Bahraini officer were killed at a Mogadishu base on Saturday. Turkey and Somalia signed a defence agreement on Thursday. Ten were killed and 20 injured in a strike on Mogadishu's largest market on Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Both attacks were claimed by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabab, but several analysts see the targeting of UAE troops as being in response to Abu Dhabi’s alleged support for the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which last month struck a recognition deal with Addis Ababa, in exchange for providing Ethiopian access to the Gulf of Aden. Both Al Shabab and the Somali government in Mogadishu have slammed the move, as have Turkey and Egypt.
FOR BUSINESS. Turkey and Egypt – whose leaders this week will meet for the first time in a decade – don’t usually agree on much but they both oppose Ethiopia’s move with Somaliland. Cairo, which also opposes Addis building dams on the Nile, has hinted at intervention, though this could compound existing problems, from Gaza to Sudan to the Red Sea. The UAE, for its part, operates Somaliland’s Berbera port and once considered an anti-Houthi base there.
WEST AFRICA. ECOWAS and wasn’t
A regional bloc and its proponents look shaky.
At least three died in weekend protests following Senegal's delay to elections scheduled this month. ECOWAS officials met in Abuja Thursday to deal with the exit of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Nigeria's naira hit a record low on Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. With last year’s election of the reform-minded Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Nigeria, and a rising interest in West Africa’s energy resources, the region’s prospects looked strong. Yet a string of coups and near-coups have shaken the members of the Abuja-headquartered ECOWAS (almost as much as Nigeria's loss to Ivory Coast in the Africa Cup of Nations). With the once democratically steadfast Senegal under a cloud, many are asking who’s next.
FOR BUSINESS. Of ECOWAS's 15 members, only Senegal has never had a coup. This doesn't mean the others have a particular vulnerability, but it discredits ECOWAS's position on its former Sahelian members, all suspended after coups, and Nigeria’s leadership. The turmoil also makes investors and rating agencies uneasy. The “Africa premium” on sovereign and corporate debt is one of the many factors keeping Africans poor and their governments unstable.