The US: Backfire
Also: Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, Nepal, and India.
In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Trump's campaign gets a shot in the arm.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas’s military chief survives a strike killing at least 90 others.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Reported assassination attempts will only harm future negotiations.
NEPAL. Oli becomes prime minister, again.
INDIA. A fin de siècle moment for India's plutocrats.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Backfire
Trump's campaign gets a shot in the arm.
Donald Trump was hospitalised after being pierced in the ear by a bullet at a rally Saturday. The gunman was killed on the scene. Potential running mate pick, JD Vance, blamed Joe Biden’s political rhetoric for the attack. Biden urged unity.
INTELLIGENCE. Any attempts to kill Trump's chance of a White House return have been irreparably damaged. With his defiant rise from the podium now the election’s defining image, attack lines on January 6, felonies, and character have been neutralised. US political violence is unfortunately not rare. But from Jackson to Reagan, attempted assassinations have always backfired on those against the candidate, with the potential exception of Truman in 1950.
FOR BUSINESS. The alleged gunman, a 20-year-old local, appears to have acted alone, but the shot’s skill, the obvious security lapse, and the initial media reaction, have led to a wave of conspiracy theories, including claims it was an inside job (as surrounded an attack on Silvio Berlusconi in 2009). Such theories may increase tension in the political fringe, but both campaigns’ heated rhetoric, if anything, will probably diminish. Democrat attack ads have been pulled.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Ninety lives
Hamas’s military chief survives a strike killing at least 90 others.
An Israeli strike aimed at October 7 mastermind Mohammed Deif killed at least 90 Saturday. Hamas said Deif survived, and it still wanted ceasefire talks to continue. Benjamin Netanyahu said "cracks" were appearing in the militant group.
INTELLIGENCE. The attack is a microcosm of the wider war: Hamas hides among civilians; Israel kills those civilians; Hamas lives on; Israel’s war loses further support. Yet this time,
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Geopolitical Dispatch to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.