The US: Beyond the doubt of a shadow

Also: Ukraine, Russia, China, France, and Kenya.

Phenomenon, Remedios Varo, 1962, oil on canvas, private collection, Mexico.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. Joe Biden refuses to vacate.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. More aid is promised but fails to land.

• CHINA. Beijing slams NATO, then sends out the armada.

• FRANCE. The scramble for a coalition heats up.

• KENYA. The president struggles between political and economic forces.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Beyond the doubt of a shadow

Joe Biden refuses to vacate.

Joe Biden rejected calls to quit but failed to quell Democrat discord over his candidacy Thursday in press conference remarks that referred to Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump" and, earlier, Volodymyr Zelensky as "President Putin."

INTELLIGENCE. Biden’s slip-ups are now so routine they’ll soon stop being news, but voters are increasingly turning from the president, polls suggest, which has Democrats worried and donations drying up. Much attention was given to George Clooney’s call for Biden to step down, but more relevant are reports Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have urged him to go. Some 16 Democratic legislators now publicly oppose him continuing, including several overnight.

FOR BUSINESS. As long as Biden believes in Biden he will run. And for now, there’s no alternative. Polls suggest Kamala Harris would also lose to Trump. Prior to the media obsession with Biden’s gaffes, she was even less popular than the president. Gavin Newsom has ruled himself out. Moves for the Democratic National Committee to hold an early nomination reportedly continue. Attention will soon swing to the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Sweet F-16

More aid is promised but fails to land.

The US announced another $225 million for Ukraine Thursday, a day after promising the imminent arrival of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands. Ukraine urged NATO partners to lift restrictions on long-range weapons against Russia.

INTELLIGENCE. The long-promised fighter jets are unlikely to arrive in the time, or quantities, sufficient to make a material difference; something Zelensky