The US, China: Losing in space
Also: the Democratic Party, Ukraine, Russia, Norway, Finland, and Kenya.
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UNITED STATES. CHINA. Losing in space
NASA and Boeing face a constellation of problems.
China's Chang'e-6 moon probe returned to earth Tuesday, carrying samples from the moon's far side. Elon Musk's SpaceX may be asked to rescue two US astronauts, media speculated, after the relaunch of a Boeing craft was delayed.
INTELLIGENCE. NASA and Boeing say the astronauts aren’t in danger, despite their return being delayed, but the organisations, once synonymous with US aeronautic leadership, are increasingly distrusted. NASA had its budget cut this year after costly overruns and a troubled Mars sample return mission. Boeing has become mired in controversy. US media has reported federal prosecutors this week recommended various criminal charges against the company.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s unclear what the charges are for, but they are likely in relation to two 737 Max crashes. Just this week, two 737s belonging to Korean Air and Malaysia Airlines had pressurisation incidents. Boeing's CEO was grilled by Congress last week over an event in January. And as Boeing’s vaunted Starliner suffers helium leaks, China and Elon Musk’s SpaceX are racing ahead. Having completed a sample return, Beijing is now eyeing a mission to Mars.
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UNITED STATES. DOMESTIC POLITICS. Firing Squad
The Democrats' progressive wing is in retreat.
New York congressman Jamaal Bowman lost a primary challenge Tuesday night, giving hope to the moderate rival of Missouri representative Cori Bush, who faces a primary in August. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her primary in Queens.
INTELLIGENCE. The so-called ‘Squad’ of nine progressive representatives has attracted attention from left and right, despite having no real impact on Democratic policy. The interest has allowed the Republicans to paint a narrative of unbridled ‘wokeness’ in the White House, even if on the most pressing issues – from Israel to China – Joe Biden has steered close to the centre. Running well-funded moderates against these members is hoped to curtail this effect.
FOR BUSINESS. Biden may privately wish the Squad would disappear, but he can ill-afford to press too hard as many of their acolytes form the backbone of the Democrats’ election machine. Young progressives are already turning off Biden over Gaza and climate. And while they’ll never vote for Donald Trump, they could help his chances if they stay home, particularly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, home to Squad congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Summer Lee.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Spoils of peace
Late interventions from China, India, and Donald Trump.
Xi Jinping told Poland's president Beijing wanted peace through diplomacy in Ukraine. Narendra Modi will visit Moscow in July, Indian media said. Advisers to Donald Trump have proposed withholding aid to Kyiv unless it enters peace talks.
INTELLIGENCE. The positions of Beijing, Delhi and Mar-a-Lago aren’t new, but the parallel (though not coordinated) messaging will be heard loudly in Brussels, Washington and Kyiv. As Russia prepares for a summer offensive, and the US scrambles to find more Patriot batteries for Ukraine, speculation is rising of a dramatic change for tack from Volodymyr Zelensky, who this week sacked his joint forces commander and ordered a purge of his presidential guard.
FOR BUSINESS. Vladimir Putin has also been conducting military purges, including by replacing one deputy minister with a relative. He may have an excuse for a further shake-up, with the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants Tuesday for army chief Valery Gerasimov and ex-defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Yet despite embarrassing missile incursions in Crimea, it’s still Putin’s war to lose. He will at least be encouraged to hold out until November.
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NORWAY. FINLAND. Scaredinavia
Prudent Nordics prepare for the worst.
Norway signed a deal with four firms Tuesday to stockpile grain, citing climate change, COVID-19 and war. Finland announced it would pre-emptively give avian influenza inoculations to workers with exposure to animals, a world first.
INTELLIGENCE. Oslo’s announcement follows a decision last year to refill emergency silos closed in 2003. Helsinki’s decision was less expected, considering unlike other countries it is yet to detect bird flu in humans, but its fur industry might benefit from a more cautious approach. The US has meanwhile begun new tests on dairy workers and milk products for H5N1. US agencies have been criticised for inadequate preparations, including of vaccine supplies.
FOR BUSINESS. Preparedness is never wasted, but government pre-emption can lead to panic, particularly with COVID still fresh. Further, in a world where vaccine hesitancy has been fuelled by public health overreach, officials must avoid crying wolf (or bird). For high-trust Scandinavia, this is less of an issue. And businesses only have costs versus benefits to consider. Enterprise vigilance can and should be fostered irrespective of government inaction.
KENYA. Feel it
A US ally bears the brunt of discontent.
Anti-tax activists vowed to continue protesting Wednesday after police killed five Tuesday after rioters stormed parliament in Nairobi. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff met African military chiefs in Botswana Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. With Russia and China cutting a swathe through Africa in recent years, the US has been scrambling to buttress its strongest security relationships, including Kenya, whose president was hosted to a rare state visit last month and which has provided police to Haiti at Washington’s request. President William Ruto, however, faces a new threat within as economic protests take an increasingly violent turn, buoyed by a concerted social media campaign.
FOR BUSINESS. The protests are ostensibly against tax increases, which Kenya must enact to pay off debts. Kenya traditionally has sound credit and as East Africa's commercial hub, it prizes its fiscal credentials. Yet riven by ethnic divisions (Ruto himself was summonsed by the ICC over his role in riots in 2007-08) the protests could be diverted to other grievances. Ruto may regret diverting so many police officers to Haiti. The next deployment may be delayed.