The US: Coming up Trumps
Also: Puerto Rico, Russia, North Korea, and Mongolia.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Coming up Trumps
The former president firms as base case for November.
The Supreme Court ruled former presidents have "absolute immunity" regarding "official acts", Monday. Donald Trump's lawyers asked for a delay in sentencing over an earlier records falsification conviction. Joe Biden slammed the ruling.
INTELLIGENCE. The court’s three liberal judges also strongly dissented, saying the ruling would make the president "a king above the law". Equally stern words were given by Trump over Monday’s jailing of his ally Steve Bannon, who was sentenced in 2022 for contempt of Congress. Charges of judicial weaponisation and “lawfare” have coloured the 2024 election campaign on both sides. But so far, at least, all attempts have politically favoured the Republicans.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s hard to see how Trump’s falsification of business records over the Stormy Daniels affair could be seen as an “official act”, but more serious charges are likely to be dropped due to the ruling. Trump’s polling lead is meanwhile widening as more Americans digest last week’s presidential debate. A CBS News poll Monday found 72% of voters don't believe Biden has the cognitive health to be president. A similar number believe he shouldn’t run.
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PUERTO RICO. Comes with the territory
Another vote on statehood looks set to be ignored.
Puerto Rico's political status will be put to a non-binding plebiscite during November's general elections, its governor said Monday. Power prices were raised 4.6%, weeks after a major blackout. Marine weather warnings were issued.
INTELLIGENCE. The eye of Hurricane Beryl – the first category 4 storm to form so