The US: Debatable

Also: Ukraine, Russia, China, India, and oil prices.

Elephant and Donkey - Wild Animal Compound at McKee Jungle Garden, Florida, F. E. C. News Co., West Palm Beach, 1954, postcard, State Library and Archives of Florida, Tallahassee.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. Appeals are made to the lowest common denominator.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Washington hints at a change in missile policy.

• CHINA. Beijing tests the US beyond the South China Sea.

• INDIA. A return to violence in a border state.

• ENERGY. Hurricane Francine may not be the only supply-side shock.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Debatable

Appeals are made to the lowest common denominator.

Pundits overwhelmingly called Tuesday night's debate for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. Prediction markets gave the vice president a 97% chance of a bump in the polls. A Washington Post focus group of independent voters agreed.

INTELLIGENCE. The Beltway went to bed feeling assured of Harris’s performance. And, insofar as such things matter, it was good. But presidential debates – unless particularly egregious, such as Joe Biden’s performance in June – are seldom determinative. What could be is both candidates’ ongoing focus on personality. Harris, by failing to articulate a policy vision, may be revealing a preference for the type of tawdry campaign that will more likely favour her opponent.

FOR BUSINESS. Taxes, tariffs, borders and abortion were in focus. These matter to voters, but other than abortion, all favour Trump. Harris is seen as more likeable, but only bold policy ideas will win over the undecided (or excite the unengaged) at this stage of the race. Being a small target may have helped her transition from running mate to candidate, but it’s an approach used by someone who doesn’t want to lose, rather than someone who needs to win.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Long range, shortening odds

Washington hints at a change in missile policy.

Joe Biden said Tuesday he was "working out" an end to bans on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons. Antony Blinken said Iran's supply of missiles to Russia was "a dramatic escalation". Ukrainian drones killed at least one in Moscow.

INTELLIGENCE. Kyiv’s use of drones deep inside Russia has been technically impressive, and has become a political annoyance for the Kremlin, but