The US, Europe: Chinese imitations

Also: Jordan, Iraq, Ukraine, Russia, and Venezuela.

Chinese Ladies Looking at European Curiosities, John Evan Hodgson, 1868, oil on canvas, Laing Art Gallery, Newcastle upon Tyne.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. EUROPE. Western capitals borrow geo-economic ideas.

• JORDAN. Palestine’s problems come home for the East Bank.

• IRAQ. A proposed withdrawal won’t be simple.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. NATO members report drones in their territory.

• VENEZUELA. As the opposition leader leaves, so does global attention.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. EUROPE. Chinese imitations

Western capitals borrow geo-economic ideas.

The White House was planning a sovereign wealth fund, media said Saturday, after Donald Trump floated the idea Thursday. Commodities traders last week slammed European Union plans to aggregate the purchase of commodities.

INTELLIGENCE. Both proposals could go nowhere, but they mirror a statist trend in trade and investment policy across the Western world. With the US running persistent fiscal and trade deficits, a sovereign account makes little sense other than as a slush fund for national security-linked projects. With Europe operating some of the most stringent anti-trust legislation around, it’s hard to see how a centralised trading desk would survive court challenge.

FOR BUSINESS. The ideas respond to Chinese competition. They also borrow from Beijing’s playbook (and, in the case of a European commodities desk, the Soviet Union). More evidence could emerge as the US election nears and the EU appoints its next batch of commissioners (Wednesday). But until then they may simply be trial balloons. As with many proposals from Washington and Brussels in recent months, private sector observers have been scathing.

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JORDAN. Amman cannot serve two masters

Palestine’s problems come home for the East Bank.

Three Israelis were killed at a West Bank border crossing by a Jordanian gunman Sunday. Jordanians prepared to vote Tuesday in the first parliamentary election since 2022 liberalising reforms allowed a greater role for political parties.

INTELLIGENCE. The gunman was Bedouin, not Palestinian, who make up around 20% of Jordan's population (or perhaps 50%, if