In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Harris’s narrow lead is blown off course.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Key allied conferences are postponed.
MOLDOVA. Sandu’s stance above politics risks her re-election.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Netanyahu keeps Tehran and Washington on edge.
INDIA. PAKISTAN. Within political turmoil, glimmers of hope.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Gone with the wind
Harris’s narrow lead is blown off course.
Betting markets placed Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time Tuesday, thanks largely to shifting sentiment in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Category 5 Hurricane Milton was predicted to hit Florida late Wednesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Harris’s campaign is already reeling from Hurricane Helene, where misgivings over Washington’s response, deserved or not, have dented the government’s approval and, by implication, her own. Milton is unlikely to provide a reprieve. While Florida is a Republican state, emergency management is also a federal responsibility. Staff and funding shortages will be under the microscope, even if both are due to Congress rather than migration support.
FOR BUSINESS. The Trump campaign has accused the Federal Emergency Management Authority of prioritising the welfare of refugees over Americans. In truth, the appropriations are separate and while FEMA doesn’t have a perfect record on natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Katrina), its current shortfalls are entirely man-made. None of this matters of course. Trump is winning the (mis)information wars. Further allegations of collusion with Russia are falling flat.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cruelled summit
Key allied conferences are postponed.
Joe Biden cancelled his visit to Germany Tuesday, jeopardising a high-level meeting of the Ramstein group of Ukrainian allies. Kyiv said its second peace summit, planned for November as a follow-up to one in July, had been postponed.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden had little choice but to cancel. With funding for Ukraine already being compared unfavourably with funding for disaster-stricken states, he