The US: Hawks of a feather
Also: Venezuela, China, Taiwan, France, Russia, and West Africa.
In today’s dispatch, we take a look at Donald Trump's latest foreign policy appointments and how these may factor into the president-elect's future dealings with Venezuela and China. Elsewhere, we look at the court case against French opposition leader Marine Le Pen and whether there are lessons from Washington that could apply to Paris. And speaking of the French, Russia continues to play in France's historic sphere of influence, with several items of news in West Africa.
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Michael Feller, Chief Strategist
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Hawks of a feather
Trump’s foreign policy team is only coherent in terms of domestic politics.
Donald Trump selected former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence Wednesday. Pete Hegseth, a former Fox host, was picked for defense secretary and Marco Rubio for secretary of state.
INTELLIGENCE. Rubio is the most conventional pick. The others, plus congressman Matt Gaetz for attorney-general, have shocked DC, and may struggle to pass Senate confirmation with Republicans selecting a traditionalist, John Thune, as majority leader. All, in some sense, are hawks on China, but each has shown almost Trumpian levels of political flexibility and it’s hard to imagine them standing up to the White House in the case of policy disagreements.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has entered office with a string of wildcard appointments before, whether Mike Flynn or Steve Bannon. Few of his early picks survived and his White House (like most administrations) was a hotbed of disagreement and mistrust. Gabbard, who has expressed sympathies with Syria’s al-Assad, and Hegseth, who seems more interested in military purges than defence strategy, are army veterans but have little management experience.
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VENEZUELA. Maduro vs the madmen
The line between brinksmanship and cooperation could get blurred.
Marco Rubio's role as secretary of state could put greater pressure on Venezuela, analysts said Wednesday. Nicolas Maduro last week said he wanted a "new start" with Donald Trump, who had a "golden opportunity" to pacify the world.
INTELLIGENCE. Maduro’s message was seen as attempted flattery by a cornered dictator who’s been threatened with