The US: Haley's trump card
Also: Haiti, Myanmar, ASEAN, China, Taiwan, and Nepal.
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UNITED STATES. Haley’s trump card
The former governor hints at a third candidate strategy.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that Donald Trump could remain on the Colorado ballot. Nikki Haley won her first primary in Washington DC. Haley suggested she was no longer bound to support the eventual Republican nominee.
INTELLIGENCE. Haley faces certain defeat on Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump's nomination is helped by a pliant Congressional caucus and a left-wing backlash against Joe Biden. But many of Haley’s supporters are increasingly telegraphing a potential run as a third-party ‘No Labels’ candidate. Haley has denied this (as she would while campaigning for the GOP) but No Labels organisers have said they would welcome her broad centrist appeal.
FOR BUSINESS. Most Americans seem to say they want neither Biden nor Trump, but this does not mean a third-party candidate can win. No independent has won the presidency since the mid-19th century and not even Ross Perot managed to carry a state (George Wallace was the last to perform this trick, running as a segregationist in 1968). A vote for Haley will be seen by many as a vote for the other guy, but the arithmetic could make forecasting even harder.
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HAITI. Con airport
The gangs get closer to control of the state.
Haiti declared a state of emergency and the Dominican Republic placed its military on alert Monday after gangs released 4,000 prisoners and tried to seize the capital's main airport. Gangs already control of 80% of Port-au-Prince.
INTELLIGENCE. The central bank and other government installations have also been targeted. Despite pledges from Kenya’s president and other leaders, Haiti seems no closer to receiving foreign police assistance and major powers, chiefly the US, are focused instead on evacuating their citizens. Haiti in many ways is already a narco-state, being key trans-shipment hub for cocaine. But if it's completely taken over by the gangs it could end up as something worse.
FOR BUSINESS. Two main gangs are seeking control: the G9 Family, run by Jimmy ‘Babekyou’ Cherizier, and G-Pep, run by ‘Ti’ Gabriel Jean-Pierre. Lest Haiti have a new president named ‘Barbecue’ (for setting people on fire), regional powers will need to step in. Others could alternatively fill the void. US intelligence leaks last year indicated Russia’s Wagner Group was eyeing a role. China's entry, meanwhile, could help it kill off one of Taiwan's remaining alliances.
MYANMAR. ASEAN. Burma notice
Southeast Asia continues to flub its biggest crisis.
Nine of ten leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Australia Tuesday as defence ministers prepared to meet in Laos. Myanmar rebels announced a China-brokered deal Monday to pull troops from the front line.
INTELLIGENCE. As ASEAN holds commemorative summits with Western partners, China is increasingly arbitrating the region’s affairs. For ASEAN’s four members who dispute Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea (a fifth, Indonesia, pretends not to have a dispute), this complicates their positions almost as much as China’s overwhelming economic dominance. But for China, meddling in ASEAN’s affairs is seen as necessary when the region can’t manage itself.
FOR BUSINESS. China fears Myanmar’s civil war not only endangers its citizens and investments, but its access to the Bay of Bengal. Its de facto recognition of the rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance (and the de facto disintegration this may entail) is a smaller price to pay than continuing support to Myanmar’s unpopular and inept military junta. ASEAN’s policy on Myanmar’s warring parties is confused and determined by whoever holds the rotating presidency.
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CHINA. TAIWAN. Narrowing Strait
As the Communist Party meets, Beijing salami slices towards Taipei.
Beijing aimed to "transform" its economic model while hitting 5% growth in 2024, Premier Li Qiang said Tuesday. In his annual 'two sessions' work report, military spending would rise 7.2% and Beijing would “be firm” on cross-strait affairs.
INTELLIGENCE. In mentioning Taiwan, there was no reference to “peaceful reunification” per previous reports. This does not mean war, which would be disastrous for all sides, but accords with a creeping assertiveness to limit Taipei’s options. Ahead of the inauguration of Taiwan’s next president, China has begun routine coastguard patrols around Taiwan’s Kinmen islands and has redrawn domestic flight paths to just west of the Taiwan Strait’s median line.
FOR BUSINESS. Taiwan has attempted to redraw the rules itself, establishing more informal trade links (Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer visited Monday to open a state office), and leaking the presence of US Special Forces troops. But China has the upper hand, with 60 times the population and 260 times the landmass. US interest remains critical, and Taiwan’s centrality to semiconductor supply chains helps, but in the sweep of Chinese history this is just temporary.
NEPAL. I yam what I yam
More political instability, as usual.
Nepal's prime minister formed a new government Monday after his previous coalition collapsed over policy differences. Officials said two cross-border transmission lines would be discussed in a meeting with China's State Grid this month.
INTELLIGENCE. Sadly for Nepal, the country’s politics are as unstable as its geology. Nepal has had 13 governments since abolishing the monarchy in 2008. Seismic shifts are now happening in geopolitics. Long linked to India through a succession of Hindu kings, ties are growing with China. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a self-described Maoist, signed 12 infrastructure deals with Beijing in September, designed in part to reduce reliance on Delhi.
FOR BUSINESS. Calling itself a “yam between two boulders”, Nepal tries to balance India and China, but Sino-Indian border tensions have complicated this policy. So too has a relative decline in Western investment, which the US has tried to remedy through a new aid compact launched in October, and trouble elsewhere in the Himalayas. India is dealing with unstable politics in Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Kashmir. China faces dam-building protests near Tibet.