The US: Hillbilly remedy
Also: China, the EU, Hungary, Rwanda, the DRC, and Antarctic weather.
In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Trump aims his deputy at Pennsylvania and the Midwest.
CHINA. Xi Jinping puts the state above the market.
EUROPE. HUNGARY. The EU ditches unity to make a point.
RWANDA. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Kagame and the M23 aren’t going anywhere.
ANTARCTICA. An unusual Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is detected.
(Please note an earlier draft of this dispatch was sent by mistake. We assure you this is the correct version. Apologies.)
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Hillbilly remedy
Trump aims his deputy at Pennsylvania and the Midwest.
JD Vance, Ohio senator and author of bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, was named Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee Monday. A judge dismissed Trump’s classified document case on grounds of the prosecution’s appointment.
INTELLIGENCE. Some have questioned Trump's pick of a "clone" (in Joe Biden's words), but the election is all about the swing states. By selecting Vance, Trump is taking no chances in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where his running mate’s rustbelt redemption story resonates. Vance also has less baggage than Doug Burgum or Marco Rubio on abortion (though has expressed similarly hardline views), even if latter would seemingly have an edge with minorities.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump probably feels his recent success with black and Hispanic voters will hold. His lower support among women will remain a concern. Vance's views are close to Trump's on migration, trade, and Ukraine. He is sympathetic to Lina Khan’s approach at the Federal Trade Commission. His appointment won’t be welcomed by chamber of commerce Republicans. Democrats will highlight his earlier criticisms of Trump (e.g., "America's Hitler").
CHINA. Old growth
Xi Jinping puts the state above the market.
A major plenary meeting of the Chinese Communist Party began Monday. GDP figures showed growth falling to 4.7% in the June quarter, from 5.1% in the March quarter and below expectations. New home prices extended falls in June.
INTELLIGENCE. Western pundits have painted the Chinese economy as being in crisis, but the slowdown is by design, with