The US: If you can't run...
Also: Israel, Yemen, the Philippines, China, Bangladesh, and Crowdstrike.
In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Biden’s withdrawal prompts calls to resign.
ISRAEL. YEMEN. The Houthis try to prolong the war.
THE PHILIPPINES. CHINA. Marcos pivots from Beijing to a domestic adversary.
BANGLADESH. A court decision calms protests but underlying tensions remain.
TECHNOLOGY. A routine system outage highlights concentration risks.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. If you can’t run…
Biden’s withdrawal prompts calls to resign.
Joe Biden announced his election withdrawal by letter Sunday, foreshadowing an address to the nation. He later endorsed Kamala Harris for president, which other senior Democrats, though not Barack Obama, lined up to support.
INTELLIGENCE. Obama’s silence is likely less about a rumoured run by his wife than a desire to not openly interfere with party processes. Either way, the Democrats can ill-afford further leadership uncertainty and it’s possible Harris may in fact sworn in prior to the election to head off the obvious problem with Biden’s withdrawal: if he can’t run then he can’t serve. This was why, until key senators withdrew support, it was widely thought he would remain to the end.
FOR BUSINESS. If Biden resigns, Harris’s chances in November will improve. Beyond a honeymoon polling bounce, she would be able to campaign as America’s first female president. Biden is otherwise Donald Trump’s best asset. And a long lame duck period sends a message that nobody’s in charge. Still, when Lyndon Johnson withdrew in 1968, his improved approval rating, and the “October surprise” of a Vietnam ceasefire, wasn’t enough to stop Richard Nixon.
ISRAEL. YEMEN. Third front, third inning
The Houthis try to prolong the war.
Israel intercepted missiles Sunday after striking targets in Yemen for the first time. Yemen’s Houthi militia had earlier sent a drone into central Tel Aviv, killing one. Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Washington for the first time since 2022.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu’s visit, at an awkward time for US politics, at least had a silver lining in that a Gaza ceasefire is now