The US, Israel: Fine people on both sides
Also: Spain, Myanmar, Australia, Papua New Guinea, and viruses.
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UNITED STATES. ISRAEL. Fine people on both sides
Campus culture wars could ignite a bigger problem for Biden.
Speaker Mike Johnson was heckled Wednesday at Columbia University as anti-Israel protests continued across the US. Benjamin Netanyahu said "antisemitic mobs" had taken over campuses. Preparations continued for an assault on Gaza.
INTELLIGENCE. Radical student protest isn’t new. Yet images of wealthy undergraduates hurling abuse at a minority group could lead to a counter-reaction not seen since Vietnam. There, despite the war’s unpopularity, “silent majority” disgust with Baby Boomer protesters helped Richard Nixon’s victories in 1968 and 1972. Amid woes on inflation and the border, Joe Biden can ill afford to open a new front in the culture wars that Donald Trump would only relish.
FOR BUSINESS. Biden, who will need student votes to win in November, is in a bind. He condemned antisemitism Monday but also “those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians.” To many, this sounded like Trump’s equivocation after the Charlottesville white supremacist rally, which has quickly become a GOP talking point. Noting the backlash against ESG and “wokeism” in corporate America, firms are this time staying out of the debate.
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SPAIN. Shaky Sanchez
The prime minister steps back to ‘reflect’.
Pedro Sanchez said he would suspend his duties Wednesday "to reflect" on whether to remain prime minister after an inquiry was launched into his wife. Sanchez said corruption allegations against her were false and politically motivated.
INTELLIGENCE. Spain is unusual in that some criminal inquiries can be instigated by individuals not directly affected. In the case of Begona Gomez, who has been accused of improper lobbying, the charges were brought by a controversial far-right figure. Should Sanchez resign (irrespective of Gomez’s inquiry), his fragile coalition risks falling apart. The centre-right People’s Party is the largest in the lower house, with 137 seats to Sanchez's Socialist’s 121.
FOR BUSINESS. The gambit against Gomez may not have the desired effect in terms of votes for far-right groups like Vox, which wanted to position itself as the PP’s coalition partner in the last election but ended up being the key factor behind Sanchez’s improbable victory. While Sanchez’s already-low approval has fallen since he retook power in November, the fortunes of Vox and other minor parties have also fallen. The PP, by contrast, has a near 10-point lead.
MYANMAR. Fork in the Belt and Road
Hope for the junta, and China’s trade corridor.
Rebels withdrew from Myawaddy Wednesday, allowing the junta to retake a key border post with Thailand. Xi Jinping urged officials Monday to accelerate building of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor to Southeast Asia.
INTELLIGENCE. Myanmar’s army is in the fight of its life but the battle isn’t over. And no matter who wins, Myanmar’s neighbours are keen to ensure its geographic advantages (and risks) are managed. For Beijing, projects like the Land-Sea corridor are seen as vital to escaping the “Malacca dilemma”, where trade must pass a US-controlled chokepoint. For Bangkok, Myanmar is seen as a vital buffer zone between Southeast Asia and the giants of India and China.
FOR BUSINESS. Western observers have criticised ASEAN for its recent calls for a ceasefire, saying a truce will only help a military junta otherwise on its last legs. But for most in the region, a stable but cruel Myanmar is preferable to a free but fragmented one, liable to control by its more powerful neighbours. The status quo is also preferable to Delhi and Beijing, which is why they’ve helped it so far (alongside Russia). The junta is bad, but it’s the devil they know.
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AUSTRALIA. PAPUA NEW GUINEA. No walk in the park
Anthony Albanese treads a narrow path in the Pacific.
Australia's prime minister finished a two-day trek Wednesday with his counterpart in PNG, traversing a mountain track key to the allies' WWII campaign. PNG’s James Marape hit back Monday at remarks from Joe Biden about “cannibals”.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden’s gaffe about his uncle's death in WWII New Guinea was less delicate than the "shared journey" message from Albanese. And while Port Moresby still feels slighted by Biden's decision to cut a trip to PNG in 2023, Canberra has been careful to rebuild ties with its neighbour, a former colony, where relations have not always been smooth. In frame is the role of Beijing. Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited PNG this month to bolster economic ties.
FOR BUSINESS. Australia and the US have so far blocked China’s attempts to deepen security ties in PNG and the Pacific. A basing deal between Moresby and Washington, alongside greater diplomatic engagement, has helped preserve the Pentagon’s “island chain” strategy – another WWII legacy. A basing deal China hoped to strike in neighbouring Solomon Islands was quashed. But Pacific states have their own agency, and don’t like to be bullied.
VIRUSES. The bird has flown
Zoonotic diseases are a fact of life.
The US Food and Drug Administration said milk samples Tuesday had tested positive for bird flu. The Republic of Congo declared an mpox epidemic after 19 cases were confirmed. Vermont confirmed its first measles case since 2018.
INTELLIGENCE. Most people have tried to forget COVID-19 but zoonotic viruses have not forgotten human beings. Much of the concern around measles and bird flu is overblown. Health and agricultural systems are well-equipped to deal with outbreaks, particularly in the rich world. Yet for “newer” diseases like mpox, many of which are endemic in less-developed places like the Congo, the threat is real. Specific vaccines don’t exist. True fatality rates are unknown.
FOR BUSINESS. The 2022-23 mpox (i.e., monkeypox) outbreak in Europe and the Americas mainly affected healthy young men, and the death rate was low. The current outbreak in Africa is mainly affecting children and has likely had more fatalities. A different strain to the 2022-23 virus, it is also more virulent. Poxviruses, of which there are 83, are among humanity’s greatest foes. Smallpox killed 500 million in its last 100 years before being eradicated in 1980.