In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. Moves to replace the president get real.
EUROPE. The EU calls, again, for a defence union.
FRANCE. French separatists form a united front.
THE PACIFIC. As the US opens embassies, China gifts palaces.
VIETNAM. The new president gains another lever of power.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. Joe without a punchline
Moves to replace the president get real.
Senator Jon Tester urged Joe Biden to end his re-election Thursday amid rising concerns the president could lose the Democrats both houses if he stayed. The party postponed a virtual rollcall that would have made Biden candidate.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite his debate performance, the odds were in the president’s favour to stay in the race. He had the delegates and the sole prerogative to decide. Party insiders lined up to defend him. But the wall has now broken and moves to push the DNC rollcall into August are the writing on the wall. Biden has allowed himself a face-saving way to exit, expected this weekend, for health reason. He may of course stay, but the chorus will only grow louder.
FOR BUSINESS. The Democratic National Committee is said to be readying a campaign without Biden. Kamala Harris is almost certain to be candidate, with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro favoured as a running mate to neutralise JD Vance’s rustbelt credentials. Trump is still favoured to win, but a senate and congressional wipeout would be less likely. Biden’s final months will likely focus on salvaging his legacy, including student debt cuts blocked by the courts.
EUROPE. Coalition of the unwilling
The EU calls, again, for a defence union.
Addressing the European Parliament, re-elected Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for a "true European defence union" and criticised Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Russia said her speech gave a "military colouring" to the EU.
INTELLIGENCE. Von der Leyen isn’t the first and won’t be the last European leader calling for a non-NATO security architecture, but