The US: Make me a martyr

Also: Ukraine, Russia, the Vatican, China, the Philippines, and Nigeria.

Conspiracy, Edward Biberman, 1955, oil on board, Los Angeles County Museum of Art.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. More alleged lawfare will only revive Trump’s chances.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. China and India join the race for a peace plan.

• THE VATICAN. CHINA. Beijing gets closer to Taipei’s most influential ally.

• THE PHILIPPINES. CHINA. Maritime tensions distract from issues at home.

• NIGERIA. The economy turns a corner, but the mood remains combustible.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Make me a martyr

More alleged lawfare will only revive Trump’s chances.

An indictment accusing Donald Trump of trying to overturn the 2020 election was revised Tuesday. Michigan and Wisconsin said Robert F Kennedy Jr could not be removed from the ballot, despite leaving the race to support Trump.

INTELLIGENCE. The federal indictment will be allowed to proceed despite the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity (though it's unlikely a trial will start before November). RFK's supporters will be directed to vote for Trump despite any confusion the Kennedy scion’s name might present. Yet to both men, and their supporters, the moves look like Democrat establishment lawfare (as does Tuesday’s New York Times story about RFK decapitating a whale).

FOR BUSINESS. To normal candidates, the news would be damaging, but to Trump and RFK they’re just more fodder for a paranoid style of politics. Recently joined by another “weird” ex-Democrat, Tulsi Gabbard, their joint ticket will appeal to the swing state voters who want the JFK files released, the UFO programs disclosed, and the swamp drained. And that’s a number that’s possibly much larger than the number of independents turned off by such antics.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Backed-up plans

China and India join the race for a peace plan.

Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin Tuesday he wanted an "early" end to the war in Ukraine, a day after speaking to Joe Biden following a visit to Kyiv on Friday. China called for countries to endorse a peace plan it had developed with Brazil.

INTELLIGENCE. As fighting continues, the battle for the peace ramps up. Competing with India and China’s proposals (or at least claims to mediation) is