The US: No Walz in the park

Also: Israel, Palestine, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand.

Paul Bunyan and Babe the Blue Ox, c1950, postcard, Minnesota Historical Society, St Paul.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. A nice Minnesotan will appeal to the base more than the centre.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas’s October 7 mastermind takes charge.

• BANGLADESH. After the fall of Hasina, reports of ethnic cleansing.

• MYANMAR. The junta loses a military headquarters and two Chinese-backed JVs.

• THAILAND. The opposition looks is set to be dissolved on lèse-majesté.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. No Walz in the park

A nice Minnesotan will appeal to the base more than the centre.

Kamala Harris named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate Tuesday at a Philadelphia rally. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who had been seen as the most likely pick, said Harris and Walz had his "enthusiastic support.”

INTELLIGENCE. A progressive governor from a progressive state, Walz will appeal to Harris’s base, but despite his Midwestern agreeableness his policy record risks deterring many swing voters in the rustbelt. Shapiro, a pragmatic centrist, was speculated as more likely for this reason, but his pro-Israel positions were seen as an obstacle for getting out the vote among Harris’s young but electorally apathetic enthusiasts. Republicans welcomed her choice.

FOR BUSINESS. Walz’s gubernatorial record on criminal justice, Covid and the culture wars is his biggest appeal among Democrats and biggest drawback among Republicans. How independents view him is largely unknown. Like Trump’s running mate JD Vance, Walz risks becoming a polarising figure – even though he was considered a moderate while in Congress – but unlike Vance, he is seen as unlikely to bring extra votes in the battleground states.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Sinwar, not peace

Hamas’s October 7 mastermind takes charge.

Hamas named its Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar as its new political chief Tuesday, following last week's assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said "it really is on him" whether a ceasefire deal is agreed.

INTELLIGENCE. Sinwar is highly unlikely to do a deal with Israel, which sought to eliminate him during a strike it said killed Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif on 13 July. If