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The US: Puerto in a storm
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The US: Puerto in a storm

Also: Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, and France.

Oct 29, 2024
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Geopolitical Dispatch
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The US: Puerto in a storm
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The Promise, Miguel Pou y Becerra, 1928, oil on canvas, Museo de Arte de Ponce, Puerto Rico.

In today’s dispatch:

  • UNITED STATES. A non-voting territory becomes central to the election.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. A ban on UNRWA comes as ceasefire talks stall.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Russian troops capture the last town before Pokrovsk.

  • BULGARIA. A potential choice between an eighth election or a far-right coalition.

  • FRANCE. Macron strikes a new partnership to stem a regional decline.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Puerto in a storm

A non-voting territory becomes central to the election.

Donald Trump's campaign distanced itself from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe Monday after he made disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico at a New York rally. Singer Bad Bunny joined other Puerto Rican celebrities to endorse Kamala Harris.

INTELLIGENCE. Puerto Rico, a US territory since 1898 but still without statehood, only has a population of 3 million and cannot vote in presidential elections. Yet its US-based diaspora, with full voting rights, is around 6 million, and forms a significant bloc in many swing states, notably Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. Like other Hispanic communities, it had been trending toward Trump. Puerto Rico’s non-voting Congresswoman is a Republican.

FOR BUSINESS. Rather than forming part of some grand plan, the controversy appears to be an own goal in a race most polls suggest will go down to the wire. The Democrats have made big mistakes too – from calling Trump’s supporters “Nazis” to taking members of the Cheney family to campaigns in Michigan (earning Trump an unexpected lead among Arab-American voters) – but this may be a rare occasion where a political storm actually harms Trump.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Sharp relief

A ban on UNRWA comes as ceasefire talks stall.

Multiple states joined the UN Tuesday in condemning a Knesset vote to ban the UN Relief and Works Agency on Israeli territory and curtail its operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Antonio Guterres said the laws would be "devastating".

INTELLIGENCE. With UNRWA’s alleged links to Hamas, it’s unlikely the laws will not be adopted. And with the UN’s influence in Israel diminished, and

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