Israel: Make me good, but not yet

Also: the US, Ukraine, Russia, North Korea, and Myanmar.

Fantastic Ruins with Saint Augustine and the Child, Francois de Nome, 1623, oil on canvas, National Gallery, London.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. Washington issues a 30-day ultimatum on Gaza.

• UNITED STATES. Harris’s move on identity could backfire.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky outlines his war plans to the Rada.

• NORTH KOREA. Detonated infrastructure and claims of 1.4 million fresh recruits.

• MYANMAR. The junta loses a key route to China.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. Make me good, but not yet

Washington issues a 30-day ultimatum on Gaza.

Israel had until mid-November to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face potential restrictions on military aid, US officials said Tuesday. Attacks continued throughout the enclave, as well as across Lebanon, killing dozens.

INTELLIGENCE. The vagueness of the ultimatum and its timing – after the US election – makes it virtually meaningless, but it’s the most Washington will be willing to do in a febrile environment and as US personnel become increasingly enmeshed in a fast-moving conflict. The US no doubt holds genuine humanitarian concerns, but seldom are there wars where, tragically, these take precedent over strategic considerations, let alone political imperatives.

FOR BUSINESS. Benjamin Netanyahu has paid little heed to international opprobrium, particularly where the consequences have been symbolic at best. Yet for every expedience taken in war there are further impediments to a lasting peace. There remain reserves of quiet sympathy for Israel throughout the region, particularly among Christians and Druze, but such views will be harder to express, let alone formalise through future treaties, as more civilians die.

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UNITED STATES. Race to the bottom

Harris’s move on identity could backfire.

Kamala Harris pledged to pass the George Floyd Policing Act Tuesday, a day after promising 1 million "forgivable loans" to black entrepreneurs and funding for black male teachers. Polls showed rising Republican support among black men.

INTELLIGENCE. Race has long been a central, if not the central, theme in US politics. Both sides have exploited it. Few policies