The US: Surprise!

Also: Israel, Lebanon, Haiti, Mexico, Vietnam, and China.

The Desperate Man, Gustave Courbet, 1843, oil on canvas, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. A strike, a hurricane, and a war in the Middle East.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. A limited incursion risks becoming a quagmire.

• HAITI. A crisis is kicked beyond the election cycle.

• MEXICO. A new president faces trade and security challenges.

• VIETNAM. CHINA. Hanoi is tested in the Mekong and the South China Sea.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Surprise!

A strike, a hurricane, and a war in the Middle East.

Picket lines began at 36 ports across the eastern seaboard early Tuesday. As many as 600 were missing as criticism rose over the response to Hurricane Helene. Israel informed Washington a ground assault would soon begin in Lebanon.

INTELLIGENCE. Only hours into the month, there are already several candidates for an October surprise to shift the election. So far, the biggest three – on ports, Helene and Lebanon – all pose risk for Kamala Harris, insofar as she represents the incumbent. And specifically – whether fairly or not – they make her administration seem powerless on labour market concerns (and the arrival of goods for Christmas), disaster management, and national security.

FOR BUSINESS. It didn’t help Harris when Joe Biden, asked to comment on strikes in the Middle East while returning from his beach house, said “I’ve spoken to both sides… I’m supporting the collective bargaining effort.” His failure to promise further funds for Helene-wreaked states has also harmed his cause. With 36 days to go, these issues may not be decisive, but the ‘polycrisis’ nature of the current moment illustrates just how easily the election could go awry.

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ISRAEL. LEBANON. Ground truths

A limited incursion risks becoming a quagmire.

Israel launched "targeted and limited" raids into southern Lebanon Monday, following speculation special forces had already entered several villages. In a tacit endorsement, the US said Hezbollah sites along the border must be removed.

INTELLIGENCE. Whether you call it incursion or invasion, Israel faces a dilemma. Politically, it’s vowed to return its citizens to the north, and