The US: The gate shuts
Also: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, India, the Korean Peninsula, and Myanmar.
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UNITED STATES. The gate shuts
After the horse has bolted.
Joe Biden announced new restrictions at the Mexico border Tuesday, barring asylum claims where irregular encounters exceed 2,500 per day. The move was panned by critics on the left as being too draconian and the right as being too lax.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden trails Donald Trump by 17 points on illegal migration, which consistently tops voter concerns. Five months to the election it’s unlikely the move will be enough to turn the border crisis around – only in Washington would 2,500 crossings per day be seen as acceptable – but at least Biden can expect greater cooperation from Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico, who takes office in October and will not want to contribute to a Trump victory.
FOR BUSINESS. Sheinbaum’s emphatic election win on Sunday should give her the political capital to increase patrols on the Mexican side of the border, and further crack down on the drug gangs that have moved into the business of people trafficking. Biden, who has praised Mexico’s recent support – crossings have recently fallen from record highs – delayed the announcement until after the vote. He will hope this diplomatic olive-branch won’t go unreciprocated.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. LEBANON. The gate opens
A new front appears a more serious prospect.
Israel said it was "approaching a decision" Tuesday on an offensive on the Lebanese border. Brushfires from Hezbollah strikes continued into Wednesday. A gunman fired on the US embassy in Beirut. Iran's foreign minister visited the city.
INTELLIGENCE. Hezbollah, Iran’s best-equipped regional proxy, has resisted a serious entry into the war in Gaza but recent hostilities may trigger an Israeli response it cannot ignore. Iranian hardliners, vying for control ahead of this month’s presidential election, are meanwhile concerned the Shiite militia may be moving away from Tehran just as its other allies – from Iraq to Syria – appear to be seeking pragmatic accommodation with Turkey and Sunni Arabs.
FOR BUSINESS. A new Israel-Lebanon war would favour nobody except perhaps Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And even they would want to think twice as indirect US-Iran talks reportedly continue in Oman. Russia could be another winner, insofar as a new crisis would be a further impediment on Western supplies to Ukraine, but such a conflict could easily get out of control, including for Iranian-Russian cooperation in North Africa and the Caspian Sea.
INDIA. Blame game
The BJP grapples with an election shock.
Supporters of Narendra Modi blamed Western media Wednesday for the surprise reduction of his Bharatiya Janata Party's seats in parliament. The BJP will now need to rely on its allies in the National Democratic Alliance for a majority.
INTELLIGENCE. Blaming the West can be an instinctive response in Indian politics though until recently it was the left-wing Indian National Congress that saw a US (or British) hand in every defeat. This time around, it’s Modi’s supporters who credit the global elite’s focus on religion and human rights for denting the BJP’s populist march. Russia and China will want to accentuate these concerns as a chastened Modi returns to the international stage.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s unlikely rural and working-class Indians, who turned against the BJP in places like Uttar Pradesh, were considering the opinions of The Economist. Their thoughts on religion, if it was even a factor, was more likely to be around a sense that it had taken priority over basic welfare and employment concerns. The constituency of Ayodhya, where Modi recently inaugurated an enormous temple, for example, voted in the socialist Samajwadi Party.
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KOREAN PENINSULA. Waste away
Pyongyang makes do with trash and talk.
Seoul said it would resume military drills near the demarcation line Tuesday after Pyongyang sent balloons filled with excrement across the border. The US flew a B-1B bomber over the peninsula Wednesday for the first time since 2017.
INTELLIGENCE. South Koreans were right to be disgusted, but weaponising poo – a trick of small children, not nuclear powers – is a sign of weakness. It is also a sign the North has exhausted its ability to shock after months of threats, tests and launches. Perhaps the only leverage it has is over China, which has recently sought to build closer ties with the South, including at a trilateral meeting with Japan, whose statement received a hysterical rebuke from Pyongyang.
FOR BUSINESS. The South and its partners seem increasingly inured to the North’s provocations but Beijing, which has a formal alliance with Pyongyang and uses it as the proverbial pit-bull in the front yard, is more vulnerable. Having gone through its own legislative poll in April, Seoul has warned the North will increase its antics leading up to the US election. Beijing risks getting the blame, and the blowback, particularly as it stands aside on stronger UN sanctions.
MYANMAR. What the kyat dragged in
The civil war brings a delayed financial collapse.
Five were charged with illegally selling foreign property and 14 were arrested for destabilising the kyat’s exchange rate, state media said Tuesday. Myanmar's opposition said Monday the junta had printed 30 trillion kyats since the coup.
INTELLIGENCE. One kyat is worth less than 5% of a US cent, which is half its pre-coup value in early 2021. Admittedly that means 30 trillion is only worth $14 billion, but for an economy with an estimated nominal GDP of $68 billion it's not insignificant. Inflation is unlikely to topple the junta alone, but combined with its loss of territory and declining morale in the Burmese heartland, worries about the kyat are another indicator the generals are rapidly losing control.
FOR BUSINESS. Myanmar has faced insurgencies since 1948 but seldom has the military – long a unifying force, even if widely despised – seemed so weak. As rebel militias, many aligned with the opposition National Unity Government, cement control across the country’s borders there will come a point where Myanmar’s neighbours, including major investor China, will start to deal more directly with them, rather than the authorities in Naypyidaw.