The US: The House always wins
Also: Ukraine, Russia, the EU, China, and Palau.
In today’s dispatch, we look at the Congressional countdown and what a finely balanced House means for US politics, whether under a Republican or Democratic majority. We also examine the signals out of Russia and Ukraine, and how Europe is reacting as it holds regional meetings. Finally, we look at economic developments in China, and how these may be managed in light of US tariff threats, plus a little-noticed election in Palau, one of Taiwan’s last remaining allies.
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Michael Feller, Chief Strategist
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.
UNITED STATES. The House always wins
The odds improve for independent-minded representatives.
The GOP had flipped six seats and the Democrats five to reach 211 and 199 seats in the House as of Thursday night. With 218 needed for a majority, key races were underway in Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Colorado, Washington and California.
INTELLIGENCE. With short terms and primary challengers, the House would seem the worst place in government, but politics always finds its fault line, particularly if the balance is held by moderate Republicans who can bargain with the White House. Either way, a group of pivotal representatives will be found by lobbyists, and it will be them, as much as the Speaker’s office, around which power will flow. And if they play it smart, their constituents will reward them.
FOR BUSINESS. A Congressional sweep doesn't mean an easy ride for the executive. Donald Trump had a federal trifecta between 2017 and 2019 but saw two shutdowns in this period and inordinate influence going to Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski in the Senate, where majority numbers were the narrowest. Joe Biden likewise enjoyed a trifecta between 2021 and 2023, but despite a more disciplined caucus, saw power flow to Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Ringing off the hook
Regardless of Trump’s decision, there’s now scope for an off-ramp.
Vladimir Putin said Thursday he was "ready" for dialogue and congratulated Donald Trump for being a "real man". Volodymyr Zelensky said he had a "productive" call with Trump but told EU leaders that peace could not be "bought".
INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky wants to set the terms to an end of a war he is clearly losing, but for as long as he relies on US arms and money it
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