The US: The law of small numbers
Also: China, Moldova, the UK, and Bolivia.
In today’s dispatch:
UNITED STATES. What to make of the shock jobs report and Iowa poll.
CHINA. The legislature meets on stimulus, and self-sufficiency.
MOLDOVA. A pro-EU incumbent wins, but divisions are entrenched.
BRITAIN. The new opposition leader will keep the culture wars alive.
BOLIVIA. The ex-president’s supporters take 200 troops hostage.
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UNITED STATES. The law of small numbers
What to make of the shock jobs report and Iowa poll.
October nonfarm payrolls rose 12,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, versus 113,000 expected. Kamala Harris led Donald Trump 47-44% in a Des Moines Register poll on Saturday. The dollar fell 0.9% in Asian trading Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. Markets are pricing a higher chance Harris might win, and predictions of a 25-point rate cut Thursday are at 98% (with an 80% chance of another 25bps cut in December). But the Iowa poll, based on 808 responses, cuts against other surveys, such as an Emerson College poll released the same day, which puts Trump ahead by 10 points. As for the jobs report, this appears more due to hurricanes and strike disruptions than omens of a fundamental trend.
FOR BUSINESS. There are few statistics more error-prone than US polls and US job numbers, yet in the absence of anything else traders must react. As with the suitability of the candidates, the strength of the US economy is in the eyes of the voter. Latest GDP and inflation numbers suggests it’s good, but like the electoral college, it’s not the national aggregate that counts. Earnings season and an OPEC+ output hike delay are adding to market uncertainty.
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CHINA. The war of large numbers
The legislature meets on stimulus, and self-sufficiency.
The National People's Congress Standing Committee met Monday, with expectations of a stimulus announcement later this week. Firms like Huawei had "no choice" but to control their own supply chains, its CEO said in published remarks.
INTELLIGENCE. The National People's Congress may be a rubber stamp, but that doesn't mean China’s policy process is simple. Among the