The US: To the Moon and back
Also: Japan, Albania, Italy, Russia, Panama, and Nicaragua.
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UNITED STATES. To the Moon and back
The US is back on the lunar surface, albeit this time through a private company.
The first US spacecraft to reach the Moon in over 50 years landed on Thursday, beaming out a weak signal, according to the firm running the mission. The vessel, Odysseus, has landed near the south pole, the focus of other recent voyages.
INTELLIGENCE. The last time the US made it to the Moon was in 1972 with the Apollo 17 mission. The Apollo program put 12 astronauts on the moon but was abandoned after costs rose and public support waned. This return is significant given it’s a private company (Intuitive Machines) running the mission. It becomes the first private business to successfully land on the Moon after a fuel leak foiled an attempt last month by Astrobotic Technology.
FOR BUSINESS. Private space missions are likely to increase, as joint ventures with state agencies fuel increasing competition for space exploration and dominance. In this instance, Odysseus carried out six different experiments for NASA and was the beneficiary of $118 million in public funds to build and land the craft. It’s part of an effort to commercialise supply deliveries, as NASA attempts to put astronauts back on the moon in the coming years.
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JAPAN. Nik-high
The Nikkei hits a new record, but in inauspicious circumstances.
The Tokyo stock index Nikkei 225 surged to an all-time high on Thursday. The index reached 39,098.68, beating the previous record set way back in December 1989 before Japan settled into not one but two lost decades.
INTELLIGENCE. The previous high was set just before Japan’s financial bubble broke at the peak of the overvaluation of Japanese firms and real estate, ushering in a long period of stagnation. The economic situation today is starkly different compared to what it was in 1989. Back then, the average price-to-earnings ratio for top companies was over 60, whereas now it’s closer to just 15. Japan’s economy is meanwhile faltering, with the country officially in recession.
FOR BUSINESS. Major stocks on the Nikkei have risen 16% since the start of the year, and 44% in the past 12 months. The index high is largely being driven by investors cycling out of China and Hong Kong. Foreigners bought around ¥2 trillion ($13.8 billion) of Japanese stocks in January alone, double the volume a year earlier. Share buybacks, government-subsidised savings schemes, and a continued low-interest rate environment are additional factors.
ALBANIA. ITALY. Migrant hold
Tirana signals it is willing to help with Europe’s migrant challenges.
Albania’s parliament Thursday approved a deal with Italy to hold asylum seekers seeking to reach the Italian mainland. Following approvals in Rome and in the courts, the Kuvendi, dominated by the Socialist Party, voted for the deal 77-0.
INTELLIGENCE. This is a five-year deal between Tirana and Rome, under which Albania will accommodate up to 36,000 asylum seekers each year who have been rescued attempting to enter Italy via the Mediterranean. The scheme will be Italian-run, using a centre near the Albanian port of Shengjin, with each asylum seeker likely to be held for a month while their application is processed. As Albania is not part of the EU, the deal has raised concern in Brussels.
FOR BUSINESS. Migration is among the most hotly contested topics in Europe, and Albania is courting favour with its richer EU neighbours on the challenge, particularly in Mediterranean states of Italy, Greece and Spain, where arrivals have sharply increased and other solutions – including with Tunisia, Libya and, most recently, Mauritania have been found wanting. Albania applied for EU membership in 2009. Serious talks on accession began in 2022.
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UNITED STATES. RUSSIA. Nadezhin to see
Opposition to Putin is all but eliminated.
The US announced further sanctions on Russia to mark the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. A liberal Russian politician lost an appeal barring him from running against Vladimir Putin in next month’s presidential race.
INTELLIGENCE. Boris Nadezhin was vying to be a true independent candidate for next month’s presidential election. One of his key platforms was to call for an end to the Ukraine conflict. Yet Russia’s electoral commission has declared that 9,000 of 105,000 signatures gathered for his candidacy were invalid; enough to cancel his candidacy. As Putin’s opposition is eliminated, and remaining independent media banned, Putin is all but assured of a stonking re-election.
FOR BUSINESS. The latest round of sanctions is unlikely to harm the Russian economy. As with previous sanctions, they target firms in third countries allowing Russia to access prohibited goods. In January, the IMF forecast Russia’s growth to be 2.6% for 2024, on the back of 3% growth in 2023. With recessions across the G7, this is impressive. The US Treasury offers an alternative narrative: if not for the sanctions, Russia’s economy would be 5% larger than it is.
PANAMA. NICARAGUA. Shaken and stirred
The authorities go after a former president.
Panama ordered the arrest of former president Ricardo Martinelli, who had been seeking refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy after receiving political asylum in early February. Martinelli has vowed to run again, despite a series of charges.
INTELLIGENCE. Martinelli was president between 2009-2014, and he remains the candidate for his Realizando Metas party, even though he is constitutionally barred from regaining the role, given his conviction. Martinelli has already been sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2024 for his role in a money laundering scheme. This involved the purchase of a media company and using funds from third-party firms to win corrupt contracts, totalling around $43 million.
FOR BUSINESS. Given the Nicaraguan embassy’s inviolable status, the order won’t lead to an immediate arrest. It does mean, however, that his conditional release, while he appealed his conviction, is quashed. Corruption remains rife in Panama. It is ranked 108 of 180 countries according to latest Transparency International data. Amid separate scandals over a Canadian mine and a drying Panama Canal, 56% of voters think fraud has increased in the past year.